Avalanche at Red Wings 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Colorado Avalanche

▸2

Detroit Red Wings

FinalTV FDSNDETX, ALT·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Detroit Red Wings 2-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Lucas Raymond's goal at 18:13 of the second period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 12% to 30%. Expected goals were close — COL 2.7, DET 2.6; shots on goal were COL 25, DET 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 1.6 goals saved above expected; Ville Husso stopped 23 of 25 (.920). Three stars: 1. Cale Makar (1 G), 2. Lucas Raymond (1 G), 3. Valeri Nichushkin (1 G).

Three stars

★
C. Makar1 G
★★
L. Raymond1 G
★★★
V. Nichushkin1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	18	16	011	225
DET	010	111	09	130

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

V. Nichushkin(6)
S. Girard (14), C. Mittelstadt (12)
wristxG 0.18win prob +13 ptsVideo
1-0
10:48

2nd period

C. Makar(9)PPG
N. MacKinnon (32), M. Rantanen (21)
wristxG 0.04win prob +13 ptsVideo
2-0
2:44
L. Raymond(10)
D. Larkin (9)
deflectedxG 0.12win prob +17 ptsVideo
2-1
18:13

Penalties

4 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

17:56Cale Makar · Hookingdrawn by Tyler Motte2 min
17:56Tyler Motte · Embellishment2 min

2nd

2:16Vladimir Tarasenko · Hookingdrawn by Ross Colton2 min
8:16Mikko Rantanen · Slashingdrawn by Simon Edvinsson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: DET

Biggest swing: Lucas Raymond, 2nd 18:13 — DET 12% → 30%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.6 xG · 39 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.7 xG · 47 att DET

1 G · 2.6 xG · 39 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.72 G
All situations: 1 G2.6; 2.21 G
Even strength: 1 G1.7; 0.01 G
Power play: 0 G0.8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

44%56%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.20 – 2.52

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 30; 37%
Faceoffs: 63%; 1/1
Power play: 0/1; 4
Penalty minutes: 4; 16
Hits: 16; 19
Blocked shots: 17; 18
Giveaways: 26; 3
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

Colorado Avalanche skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
8C. MakarD	1	0	1	0	2	0.18	1	2	2	—	26:42
7D. ToewsD	0	0	0	-1	3	0.18	0	1	0	—	26:21
29N. MacKinnonC	0	1	1	-1	2	0.20	3	3	0	39	22:47
49S. GirardD	0	1	1	+1	1	0.05	0	1	0	—	22:26
96M. RantanenR	0	1	1	-1	1	0.42	1	2	2	50	22:21
62A. LehkonenL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.25	0	0	0	—	22:20
70S. MalinskiD	0	0	0	0	3	0.06	0	4	0	—	21:03
13V. NichushkinR	1	0	1	+1	5	0.40	0	0	0	—	17:53
37C. MittelstadtC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	1	0	0	27	17:33
94J. KivirantaL	0	0	0	0	0	0.12	2	0	0	100	14:09
44C. de HaanD	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	1	0	0	—	13:32
20R. ColtonC	0	0	0	+1	3	0.19	3	2	0	50	13:16
25L. O'ConnorR	0	0	0	0	2	0.32	0	0	0	100	12:46
17P. KellyC	0	0	0	0	0	0.21	1	1	0	10	12:21
67K. MiddletonD	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	0	1	0	—	09:35
14C. WagnerR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	1	0	50	07:51
51N. KovalenkoR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	06:58
82I. IvanC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	75	06:06

Colorado Avalanche goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
40A. Georgiev(W)	30	29	1	.967	2.57	+1.57	60:00

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Dec 72@1this game
Mar 252@5Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings

1st period

2nd period

1st

2nd

Box score