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Avalanche at Hurricanes
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
3
Carolina Hurricanes
▸5
FinalTV FDSNSO, ALT·Lenovo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-3. The Avalanche scored first; the Hurricanes answered. The Hurricanes led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jack Roslovic's goal at 6:41 of the second period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 70% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 4.1 to 2.1; shots on goal were COL 19, CAR 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Scott Wedgewood stopped 30 of 34 (.882), 1.0 goals below expected; Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 16 of 19 (.842), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Andrei Svechnikov (1 G, 3 A), 2. Martin Necas (1 G, 1 A), 3. Seth Jarvis (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    A. Svechnikov1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    CAR
    M. Necas1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    S. Jarvis1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL160627319
CARCAR11521327535

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    A. Lehkonen(6)
    C. Makar (25)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    9:13
  2. CAR
    E. Robinson(8)
    B. Burns (6), M. Necas (27)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    16:05

2nd period

  1. CAR
    S. Jarvis(8)PPG
    S. Aho (20), A. Svechnikov (11)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    4:09
  2. CAR
    J. Roslovic(13)
    A. Svechnikov (12), S. Walker (3)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    6:41

3rd period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(4)
    P. Kelly (4), D. Toews (8)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +9 ptsVideo
    2-3
    14:41
  2. CAR
    M. Necas(14)PPG
    A. Svechnikov (13), S. Gostisbehere (16)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +2 ptsVideo
    2-4
    17:49
  3. COL
    V. Nichushkin(5)
    N. MacKinnon (31), C. Makar (26)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +4 ptsVideo
    3-4
    18:13
  4. CAR
    A. Svechnikov(9)EN
    J. Drury (6), S. Aho (21)
    snapxG 0.55win prob +2 ptsVideo
    3-5
    19:44

Penalties

COL 10 PIM·CAR 6 PIM

1st

  • 2:02COLCasey Mittelstadt · Trippingdrawn by Jack Roslovic2 min
  • 9:34CARSean Walker · Hookingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 11:12COLDevon Toews · Trippingdrawn by Jack Drury2 min

2nd

  • 3:01COLCasey Mittelstadt · Slashingdrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min

3rd

  • 1:10CARJordan Staal · Trippingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 2:35CARJack Drury · Trippingdrawn by Artturi Lehkonen2 min
  • 6:12COLMikko Rantanen · Cross checkingdrawn by Jack Roslovic2 min
  • 17:14COLserved by Ivan Ivan · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalCOL goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Jack Roslovic, 2nd 6:41 — CAR 70% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.56A. Svechnikov · Goal · xG 0.55S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.23A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.19J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.18S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.18J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.16J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.15M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.11J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.11S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.10J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.09E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.09A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.09J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.09J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.08S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.08J. Roslovic · Goal · xG 0.08J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.07S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.06S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.06E. Robinson · Goal · xG 0.06J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.05D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.05M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.05S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.04J. Drury · Missed · xG 0.04J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.04M. Necas · Goal · xG 0.04S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.04S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.04B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.03S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.03S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.03M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.03A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.02S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.02J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.02J. Kotkaniemi · Missed · xG 0.02J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.02M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.02D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.01D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.01J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.01J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.01S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.01A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.01S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.00S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.00J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR5 G · 4.1 xG · 55 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsCAR
2.13 G
All situations
4 G4.1
1.23 G
Even strength
2 G2.2
0.70 G
Power play
2 G0.7
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL34%66%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.10 – 2.98

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsCAR
19
Shots on goal
35
36%
Faceoffs
64%
0/3
Power play
2/5
10
Penalty minutes
6
22
Hits
13
15
Blocked shots
11
23
Giveaways
21
4
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD022+130.26020—28:30
7D. ToewsD011+120.29222—26:03
96M. RantanenR000+140.201023325:23
29N. MacKinnonC011030.182304125:05
62A. LehkonenL101+120.29000—24:08
13V. NichushkinR202+120.45000—19:25
49S. GirardD000000.00210—18:49
70S. MalinskiD000+100.00320—16:27
25L. O'ConnorR000-220.2410010015:03
37C. MittelstadtC000-100.130041114:59
94J. KivirantaL000-100.00300—13:41
44C. de HaanD000-210.01020—13:31
3J. LudvigD000-100.00310—12:58
51N. KovalenkoR000-100.02200—11:37
17P. KellyC011+100.002006010:37
82I. IvanC000+100.000102009:08
14C. WagnerR000000.041102005:39
85N. PrishchepovC000000.00000003:16
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41S. Wedgewood(L)34304.8823.00-1.0058:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).