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Oilers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
3
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Final/OTTV NHLN, SN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-3 in overtime, Mitch Marner scoring at 0:40. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Oilers led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mitch Marner's goal at 0:40 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.8 to 2.5; shots on goal were EDM 30, TOR 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Stuart Skinner stopped 18 of 22 (.818), 1.2 goals below expected; Anthony Stolarz stopped 27 of 30 (.900), 0.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mitch Marner (1 G, 1 A), 2. Bobby McMann (2 G), 3. Connor McDavid (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    B. McMann2 G
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    C. McDavid1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
EDMEDM191911101330
TORTOR110052611422

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    A. Henrique(2)
    M. Janmark (7), C. Brown (2)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:42
  2. TOR
    B. McMann(5)
    J. Tavares (8), M. Marner (18)
    backhandxG 0.28win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    3:53

2nd period

  1. EDM
    C. McDavid(7)PPG
    Z. Hyman (5), L. Draisaitl (11)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +12 ptsVideo
    2-1
    1:51

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(8)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.11win prob +36 ptsVideo
    2-2
    13:08
  2. TOR
    B. McMann(6)
    O. Ekman-Larsson (6)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +36 ptsVideo
    2-3
    14:07
  3. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(13)
    R. Nugent-Hopkins (7), C. McDavid (14)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +42 ptsVideo
    3-3
    18:31

Overtime

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(6)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.14win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-4
    0:40

Penalties

EDM 8 PIM·TOR 7 PIM

1st

  • 4:51EDMEvan Bouchard · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 16:50EDMZach Hyman · Interferencedrawn by Jake McCabe2 min

2nd

  • 1:32TORJohn Tavares · Hookingdrawn by Evan Bouchard2 min
  • 2:41TORRyan Reaves · Match penaltydrawn by Darnell Nurse5 min
  • 10:19EDMConnor McDavid · Holdingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 11:22EDMMattias Ekholm · Cross checkingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalEDM goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Mitch Marner, OT 0:40 — TOR 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. McMann · Goal · xG 0.28B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.20C. Dewar · Missed · xG 0.19M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.18J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.18B. McMann · Goal · xG 0.15J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.15W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.14M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.14M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.11M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.10W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.09M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.09M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.08M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.08W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.07N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.07W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.07W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.06J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.05M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.05N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.04C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.03M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.01C. Tanev · Missed · xG 0.01C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.01D. Kampf · Missed · xG 0.01C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.00M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.00N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.00J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 2.8 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsTOR
2.53 G
All situations
4 G2.8
1.52 G
Even strength
4 G1.8
0.91 G
Power play
0 G1.0
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM45%55%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.47 – 2.74

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsTOR
30
Shots on goal
22
56%
Faceoffs
44%
1/2
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
17
15
Hits
18
17
Blocked shots
27
11
Giveaways
14
7
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2E. BouchardD000-120.19122—25:39
14M. EkholmD000030.08112—25:01
97C. McDavidC112-340.422024624:46
29L. DraisaitlC112030.670105522:09
18Z. HymanL011-120.05002—21:52
27B. KulakD000030.10010—21:28
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC011-100.05010020:57
19A. HenriqueC101+120.330107816:33
51T. StecherD000030.04020—15:04
49T. EmbersonD000-210.04420—14:23
13M. JanmarkC011+100.02120014:05
28C. BrownR011+110.07110—13:43
92V. PodkolzinR000020.15410—12:10
53J. SkinnerL000-110.20010—11:10
90C. PerryR000-110.0200010010:51
10D. RyanC000000.0000010008:47
24T. DermottD000000.00000—08:13
25D. NurseD000020.03110—07:45
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74S. Skinner(O)22184.8182.80-1.2060:04

Season series

TOR leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).