Skip to content
Canadiens at Sabres
NHL

Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Montréal Canadiens
▸7
Buffalo Sabres
5
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN2·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Montréal Canadiens beat the Buffalo Sabres 7-5. The lead changed hands 4 times. The Canadiens led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Cole Caufield's goal at 12:58 of the third period, which took the Canadiens' chances from 53% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Canadiens, 3.4 to 1.7; shots on goal were MTL 23, BUF 18. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Canadiens win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Cayden Primeau stopped 9 of 14 (.643), 3.6 goals below expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 14 of 18 (.778), 2.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nick Suzuki (2 G, 2 A), 2. Juraj Slafkovský (3 A), 3. Cole Caufield (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MTL
    N. Suzuki2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    MTL
    J. Slafkovský3 A
  3. ★★★
    MTL
    C. Caufield2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MTLMTL1831035723
BUFBUF162527518

Scoring

12 goals

1st period

  1. MTL
    J. Anderson(3)
    C. Dvorak (5), B. Gallagher (2)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    4:14
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(11)
    A. Tuch (9), U. Luukkonen (1)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    4:42

2nd period

  1. MTL
    C. Caufield(11)PPG
    L. Hutson (9), N. Suzuki (10)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    5:26
  2. BUF
    D. Cozens(3)
    R. Dahlin (10), A. Tuch (10)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-2
    5:45
  3. BUF
    P. Krebs(2)
    B. Byram (7), O. Power (8)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +19 ptsVideo
    2-3
    6:44
  4. MTL
    N. Suzuki(5)
    J. Slafkovský (8), K. Dach (5)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +23 ptsVideo
    3-3
    19:13
  5. MTL
    N. Suzuki(6)
    J. Slafkovský (9), K. Dach (6)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +24 ptsVideo
    4-3
    19:35

3rd period

  1. BUF
    R. Dahlin(3)PPG
    D. Cozens (4)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +19 ptsVideo
    4-4
    1:58
  2. BUF
    J. Peterka(7)
    O. Power (9)
    backhandxG 0.06win prob +26 ptsVideo
    4-5
    3:51
  3. MTL
    E. Heineman(3)
    L. Hutson (10)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +31 ptsVideo
    5-5
    10:50
  4. MTL
    C. Caufield(12)PPG
    J. Slafkovský (10), M. Matheson (10)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +32 ptsVideo
    6-5
    12:58
  5. MTL
    C. Dvorak(2)EN
    J. Anderson (5), N. Suzuki (11)
    wristxG 0.82win prob +3 ptsVideo
    7-5
    19:11

Penalties

MTL 10 PIM·BUF 14 PIM

1st

  • 12:39MTLArber Xhekaj · High stickingdrawn by Jack Quinn2 min

2nd

  • 3:09BUFJack Quinn · Trippingdrawn by Cole Caufield2 min
  • 4:38BUFBowen Byram · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 7:44MTLJuraj Slafkovský · Roughingdrawn by Zach Benson2 min
  • 7:44BUFZach Benson · Roughingdrawn by Juraj Slafkovský2 min
  • 8:35MTLNick Suzuki · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 11:56BUFBowen Byram · Interferencedrawn by Cole Caufield2 min
  • 15:24BUFConnor Clifton · Cross checkingdrawn by Kirby Dach2 min

3rd

  • 1:43MTLJayden Struble · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 4:42MTLJosh Anderson · High stickingdrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min
  • 11:15BUFRasmus Dahlin · Elbowingdrawn by Jake Evans2 min
  • 12:58BUFserved by J. Quinn · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalMTL goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Cole Caufield, 3rd 12:58 — MTL 53% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.16A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.14J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.13J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.12P. Krebs · Goal · xG 0.12T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.09S. Lafferty · On goal · xG 0.09J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.08J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.08D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.07D. Cozens · Goal · xG 0.07J. Peterka · Goal · xG 0.06J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.06O. Power · Missed · xG 0.05P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.05J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.05R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · Goal · xG 0.04J. Bryson · Missed · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.02J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.02R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.01J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.01J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.00C. Clifton · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF5 G · 1.7 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MTLvsBUF
3.46 G
All situations
5 G1.7
1.04 G
Even strength
4 G0.8
1.12 G
Power play
1 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 63 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MTL58%42%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.12 – 1.73

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MTLvsBUF
23
Shots on goal
18
39%
Faceoffs
61%
2/6
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
14
16
Hits
23
14
Blocked shots
13
13
Giveaways
12
6
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Montréal Canadiens skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8M. MathesonD011010.10130—25:34
48L. HutsonD022+110.12000—23:44
14N. SuzukiC224+240.241123721:00
21K. GuhleD000-310.03110—17:53
58D. SavardD000+300.00120—17:53
20J. SlafkovskýL033+110.17102—17:17
77K. DachC022+110.05100017:14
40J. ArmiaR000+110.03100—17:02
13C. CaufieldR202-220.52100—15:51
11B. GallagherR011010.18100—15:28
28C. DvorakC112+121.340205915:20
47J. StrubleD000000.00202—15:11
71J. EvansC000-100.010203315:04
17J. AndersonR112+110.171025013:54
15A. NewhookC000-220.180102513:29
51E. HeinemanL101+140.28210—11:25
72A. XhekajD000+110.01102—10:24
82L. CondottaL000000.001102508:10
Montréal Canadiens goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30C. Primeau1495.6431.44-3.5643:43
35S. Montembeault(W)4401.0000.30+0.3016:09

Season series

MTL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).