Panthers at Oilers 1-8 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Florida Panthers

Edmonton Oilers

▸8

FinalTV ABC, ESPN+·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Florida Panthers 8-1. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. The Oilers led 6-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Holloway's goal at 14:48 of the first period, which took the Oilers' chances from 68% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 4.8 to 3.3; shots on goal were FLA 33, EDM 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Anthony Stolarz stopped 16 of 19 (.842); Stuart Skinner stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 2.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Connor McDavid (1 G, 3 A), 2. Dylan Holloway (2 G, 1 A), 3. Mattias Janmark (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
C. McDavid1 G, 3 A
★★
D. Holloway2 G, 1 A
★★★
M. Janmark1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	114	04	015	133
EDM	310	317	28	835

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

M. Janmark(3)SHG
C. Brown (4)
backhandxG 0.22win prob +12 ptsVideo
0-1
3:11
A. Henrique(3)
M. Janmark (3), M. Ekholm (4)
tip-inxG 0.13win prob +14 ptsVideo
0-2
7:48
V. Tarasenko(5)
G. Forsling (9), A. Lundell (13)
tip-inxG 0.07win prob +14 ptsVideo
1-2
11:26
D. Holloway(4)
L. Draisaitl (19), B. Kulak (6)
backhandxG 0.15win prob +14 ptsVideo
1-3
14:48

2nd period

C. McDavid(6)
Z. Hyman (5), E. Bouchard (23)
snapxG 0.15win prob +9 ptsVideo
1-4
1:13
D. Nurse(1)
C. McDavid (30), Z. Hyman (6)
snapxG 0.06win prob +4 ptsVideo
1-5
4:59
R. Nugent-Hopkins(7)PPG
L. Draisaitl (20), C. McDavid (31)
wristxG 0.36win prob +1 ptsVideo
1-6
13:03

3rd period

D. Holloway(5)
C. McDavid (32), C. Perry (2)
wristxG 0.23Video
1-7
14:11
R. McLeod(3)
D. Holloway (2), W. Foegele (3)
slapxG 0.08Video
1-8
16:41

Penalties

12 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

1:53Darnell Nurse · Trippingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min
4:12served by E. Rodrigues · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

8:40Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Slashingdrawn by Connor Brown2 min
11:35Matthew Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
11:35Sam Bennett · Roughingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min

3rd

0:36Mattias Janmark · Hookingdrawn by Aleksander Barkov2 min
6:51Darnell Nurse · Cross checkingdrawn by Steven Lorentz2 min
9:16Aaron Ekblad · Slashingdrawn by Mattias Janmark2 min
11:52Corey Perry · Slashingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min
16:59Kyle Okposo · Elbowingdrawn by Cody Ceci2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: EDM

100%

Biggest swing: Dylan Holloway, 1st 14:48 — EDM 68% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

8 G · 4.8 xG · 50 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 3.3 xG · 50 att EDM

8 G · 4.8 xG · 50 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.31 G
All situations: 8 G4.8; 1.71 G
Even strength: 6 G1.9; 1.70 G
Power play: 1 G2.6; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 100 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

31%69%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.27 – 4.61

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

33
Shots on goal: 35; 47%
Faceoffs: 53%; 0/4
Power play: 1/6; 12
Penalty minutes: 8; 49
Hits: 29; 16
Blocked shots: 23; 10
Giveaways: 19; 8
Takeaways: 14

Box score

every player line

Florida Panthers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
62B. MontourD	0	0	0	-2	4	0.19	2	1	0	—	21:38
13S. ReinhartC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.70	0	1	0	29	19:28
77N. MikkolaD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	3	0	0	—	19:15
16A. BarkovC	0	0	0	-2	2	0.25	4	2	0	50	19:14
42G. ForslingD	0	1	1	-2	1	0.12	1	2	0	—	19:14
5A. EkbladD	0	0	0	-4	0	0.00	3	2	2	—	19:01
91O. Ekman-LarssonD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	4	1	2	—	17:26
23C. VerhaegheC	0	0	0	-3	4	0.45	2	0	0	0	16:27
19M. TkachukL	0	0	0	-3	4	0.68	3	0	2	—	16:03
7D. KulikovD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	5	0	0	—	15:55
15A. LundellC	0	1	1	-1	2	0.13	4	0	0	70	15:30
17E. RodriguesC	0	0	0	0	3	0.13	1	1	0	0	15:30
9S. BennettC	0	0	0	-3	2	0.38	3	2	2	43	14:57
82K. StenlundC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	3	1	0	36	13:57
27E. LuostarinenC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	3	2	0	0	13:31
10V. TarasenkoR	1	0	1	-1	3	0.22	2	0	0	—	10:38
8K. OkposoR	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	5	1	2	—	10:37
18S. LorentzC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.01	1	0	0	100	10:33

Florida Panthers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
41A. Stolarz	19	16	3	.842	2.79	-0.21	34:50
72S. Bobrovsky(L)	16	11	5	.688	2.02	-2.98	24:53

Series

FLA leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score