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Avalanche at Jets
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
6
Winnipeg Jets
▸7
FinalTV ESPN2, ALT·Canada Life Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Colorado Avalanche 7-6. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Jets led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Adam Lowry's goal at 8:57 of the second period, which took the Jets' chances from 53% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.6 to 2.3; shots on goal were COL 46, WPG 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 16 of 23 (.696), 4.7 goals below expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 40 of 46 (.870), 2.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Adam Lowry (2 G), 2. Mark Scheifele (1 G, 2 A), 3. Cale Makar (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    A. Lowry2 G
  2. ★★
    WPG
    M. Scheifele1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    C. Makar1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL314011321646
WPGWPG381936723

Scoring

13 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(1)
    J. Manson (1)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    6:10
  2. WPG
    J. Morrissey(1)
    K. Connor (1), B. Dillon (1)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    8:02
  3. WPG
    V. Namestnikov(1)
    A. Iafallo (1)
    slapxG 0.18win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-2
    11:57
  4. COL
    M. Wood(1)
    J. Kiviranta (1), R. Colton (1)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-2
    14:47
  5. COL
    N. MacKinnon(1)
    M. Rantanen (1), C. Makar (1)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-2
    15:05
  6. WPG
    M. Scheifele(1)
    G. Vilardi (1)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-3
    15:53

2nd period

  1. WPG
    A. Lowry(1)
    B. Dillon (2), N. Niederreiter (1)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +18 ptsVideo
    3-4
    8:57

3rd period

  1. WPG
    A. Lowry(2)
    M. Appleton (1), N. Niederreiter (2)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-5
    3:31
  2. WPG
    K. Connor(1)PPG
    J. Morrissey (1), M. Scheifele (1)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +4 ptsVideo
    3-6
    5:51
  3. COL
    A. Lehkonen(1)PPG
    C. Makar (2), N. MacKinnon (1)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-6
    6:29
  4. WPG
    K. Connor(2)
    G. Vilardi (2), M. Scheifele (2)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +4 ptsVideo
    4-7
    8:54
  5. COL
    C. Makar(1)PPG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.04win prob +2 ptsVideo
    5-7
    12:24
  6. COL
    C. Mittelstadt(1)
    A. Lehkonen (1), M. Rantanen (2)
    batxG 0.13win prob +3 ptsVideo
    6-7
    19:30

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·WPG 6 PIM

2nd

  • 5:44WPGJosh Morrissey · Cross checkingdrawn by Joel Kiviranta2 min
  • 5:44COLMiles Wood · Roughingdrawn by Josh Morrissey2 min
  • 13:52COLSean Walker · Trippingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min

3rd

  • 4:16COLValeri Nichushkin · Elbowingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min
  • 6:01WPGMason Appleton · Roughingdrawn by Zach Parise2 min
  • 11:21WPGDylan DeMelo · Trippingdrawn by Joel Kiviranta2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalCOL goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Adam Lowry, 2nd 8:57 — WPG 53% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Scheifele · Goal · xG 0.21V. Namestnikov · Goal · xG 0.18K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.16A. Lowry · Goal · xG 0.16S. Monahan · Missed · xG 0.15T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.15K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.14N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.13K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.13A. Lowry · Goal · xG 0.09G. Vilardi · On goal · xG 0.09T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.07K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.07V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.06S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.05G. Vilardi · On goal · xG 0.05V. Namestnikov · Missed · xG 0.04J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.04A. Lowry · Missed · xG 0.04G. Vilardi · Missed · xG 0.04J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.03N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.03N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.03J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.03K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.03S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.02D. Samberg · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · Goal · xG 0.02B. Dillon · Missed · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.01J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.01B. Dillon · Missed · xG 0.01N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.01N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.01B. Dillon · Missed · xG 0.01B. Dillon · Missed · xG 0.01T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.01
WPG7 G · 2.3 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsWPG
3.66 G
All situations
7 G2.3
3.04 G
Even strength
6 G1.8
0.62 G
Power play
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 100 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL69%31%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.47 – 2.33

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsWPG
46
Shots on goal
23
45%
Faceoffs
55%
2/2
Power play
1/2
6
Penalty minutes
6
55
Hits
46
10
Blocked shots
25
6
Giveaways
6
5
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD123040.32120—25:30
29N. MacKinnonC112-140.281105624:11
26S. WalkerD000+120.11202—23:15
7D. ToewsD000-310.02310—23:03
96M. RantanenR022010.034107520:58
13V. NichushkinR101-130.17312—20:47
62A. LehkonenL112-170.5200010020:27
42J. MansonD011-360.27200—19:14
37C. MittelstadtC101050.433103316:20
9Z. PariseL000-120.05610—16:03
28M. WoodL101030.38302—14:29
3J. JohnsonD000000.00310—12:22
82C. JonesD000000.00200—11:57
20R. ColtonC011030.664003311:43
94J. KivirantaL011000.00200—11:12
73Y. TreninC000030.185001710:10
11A. CoglianoC000000.00400008:14
12B. DuhaimeL000020.13710—07:51
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(L)23167.6962.33-4.6756:39

Series

COL leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).