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Red Wings at Maple Leafs
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
▸5
Toronto Maple Leafs
4
Final/OTTV BSDET, SN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-4 in overtime, Dylan Larkin scoring at 0:41. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 4-4 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Larkin's goal at 0:41 of overtime, which took the Red Wings' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.3 to 2.3; shots on goal were DET 32, TOR 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. James Reimer stopped 32 of 36 (.889), 0.7 goals below expected; Ilya Samsonov stopped 27 of 32 (.844), 2.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Alex DeBrincat (2 G), 2. Mitch Marner (1 G, 2 A), 3. Dylan Larkin (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    A. DeBrincat2 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    D. Larkin1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
DETDET4130601211532
TORTOR1631401600436

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(26)PPG
    W. Nylander (57), M. Rielly (49)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-1
    8:35
  2. DET
    A. DeBrincat(25)
    L. Raymond (40), D. Larkin (34)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    10:02
  3. DET
    S. Edvinsson(1)
    D. Perron (28), J. Petry (21)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-1
    13:39
  4. DET
    A. DeBrincat(26)PPG
    J. Compher (28), R. Fabbri (14)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +14 ptsVideo
    3-1
    17:37
  5. DET
    D. Perron(16)
    P. Kane (25), J. Compher (29)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +11 ptsVideo
    4-1
    19:41

2nd period

  1. TOR
    N. Robertson(14)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.05win prob +10 ptsVideo
    4-2
    9:04
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(69)PPG
    M. Marner (57), M. Rielly (50)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +10 ptsVideo
    4-3
    10:23
  3. TOR
    J. Tavares(27)
    M. Marner (58)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +22 ptsVideo
    4-4
    17:22

Overtime

  1. DET
    D. Larkin(33)PPG
    P. Kane (26), S. Gostisbehere (41)
    tip-inxG 0.18win prob +51 ptsVideo
    5-4
    0:41

Penalties

DET 8 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 8:07DETJoseph Veleno · Boardingdrawn by Timothy Liljegren2 min
  • 16:06TORMatthew Knies · Hookingdrawn by Joseph Veleno2 min

2nd

  • 5:13TORTyler Bertuzzi · High stickingdrawn by Jeff Petry2 min
  • 9:18DETPatrick Kane · High sticking double minordrawn by Simon Benoit4 min

3rd

  • 17:15DETPatrick Kane · High stickingdrawn by Max Domi2 min
  • 19:49TORMax Domi · Trippingdrawn by Alex DeBrincat2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalDET goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Dylan Larkin, OT 0:41 — DET 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.45A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.19J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.16A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.14M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.14A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.13J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.13T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.11M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.11J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.06W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.06T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.06W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06T. Liljegren · Missed · xG 0.05M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.05N. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.05M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.05M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.04P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.04N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.03A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.03N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02R. Reaves · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.02S. Benoit · Missed · xG 0.02T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.01N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.01S. Benoit · Missed · xG 0.01T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.01T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.01M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.01A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · Missed · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 3.3 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsTOR
2.35 G
All situations
4 G3.3
1.33 G
Even strength
2 G1.4
0.92 G
Power play
2 G1.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET33%67%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.22 – 3.21

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsTOR
32
Shots on goal
36
59%
Faceoffs
41%
2/3
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
41
Hits
35
20
Blocked shots
11
9
Giveaways
5
4
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
71D. LarkinC112050.331105624:51
53M. SeiderD000010.00820—23:46
46J. PetryD011+210.02720—21:49
8B. ChiarotD000020.03230—20:58
77S. EdvinssonD101+130.22270—20:10
23L. RaymondL011040.37200—19:45
93A. DeBrincatR202060.5330010019:12
37J. CompherL022+110.122305618:25
41S. GostisbehereD011010.24000—17:33
88P. KaneR022+130.14106—16:53
90J. VelenoC000000.002127116:18
57D. PerronL112+120.06200—16:03
36C. FischerR000020.10300—15:33
14R. FabbriC011000.005003314:26
2O. MaattaD000-100.01000—12:54
17D. SprongR000010.03000—07:47
21A. CzarnikC000000.081106706:54
11Z. Aston-ReeseL000000.00000—03:54
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
47J. Reimer(W)36324.8893.30-0.7060:41

Season series

DET leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).