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Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars

FinalTV TNT, truTV·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Edmonton Oilers 5-0. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 5-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tyler Seguin's goal at 13:16 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 75% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.4 to 2.7; shots on goal were EDM 35, DAL 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Calvin Pickard stopped 27 of 32 (.844), 1.6 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 35 of 35 (1.000), 2.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Oettinger (35 saves, 1.000), 2. Radek Faksa (1 G, 2 A), 3. Wyatt Johnston (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Oettinger35 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    DAL
    R. Faksa1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    W. Johnston1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
EDMEDM01601009035
DALDAL11041804532

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    S. Steel (15), C. Smith (8)
    snapxG 0.25win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    2:08

2nd period

  1. DAL
    T. Seguin(23)PPG
    snapxG 0.12win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-2
    13:16
  2. DAL
    T. Harley (26), R. Faksa (11)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +8 ptsVideo
    0-3
    16:27
  3. DAL
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +2 ptsVideo
    0-4
    18:42
  4. DAL
    R. Faksa (12), C. Smith (9)
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +1 ptsVideo
    0-5
    19:04

Penalties

EDM 16 PIM·DAL 8 PIM

1st

  • 10:56EDMDarnell Nurse · Interferencedrawn by Sam Steel2 min
  • 10:56EDMDarnell Nurse · Abuse of officials10 min
  • 16:02DALMiro Heiskanen · High stickingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min

2nd

  • 1:53EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins · Trippingdrawn by Jamie Benn2 min
  • 3:54DALJason Robertson · Hookingdrawn by Mattias Ekholm2 min
  • 12:27EDMMattias Ekholm · Interferencedrawn by Sam Steel2 min
  • 14:20DALWyatt Johnston · Hookingdrawn by Mattias Ekholm2 min

3rd

  • 14:43DALMason Marchment · Trippingdrawn by Evander Kane2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalEDM goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Tyler Seguin, 2nd 13:16 — DAL 75% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Faksa · Goal · xG 0.25W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.18L. Stankoven · Missed · xG 0.18R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.17M. Marchment · Missed · xG 0.17J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.14E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.13T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.12J. Benn · Goal · xG 0.11J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.10W. Johnston · Goal · xG 0.09R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.09E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.09J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.09T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.08W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.08J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.08W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.07J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.07R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.07J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.07J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.07J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.06L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.06T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.06W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.06S. Steel · Goal · xG 0.05S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.05T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.05M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.04L. Stankoven · Missed · xG 0.04M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.04T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.04M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.04M. Marchment · Missed · xG 0.04C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.03W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.03T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.02R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.01L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.01J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.01S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.01R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.01R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.01C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.01N. Lundkvist · On goal · xG 0.00E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL5 G · 3.4 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsDAL
2.70 G
All situations
5 G3.4
1.70 G
Even strength
4 G2.4
0.70 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 103 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM38%62%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.62 – 3.34

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsDAL
35
Shots on goal
32
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/4
Power play
1/3
16
Penalty minutes
8
29
Hits
19
7
Blocked shots
22
7
Giveaways
5
2
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2E. BouchardD000-150.21000—23:58
18Z. HymanL000010.24310—20:20
97C. McDavidC000080.441005720:05
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC000-110.03302019:40
14M. EkholmD000-200.06202—19:34
29L. DraisaitlC000-220.381003819:05
27B. KulakD000010.01200—19:04
5C. CeciD000-120.09000—17:45
73V. DesharnaisD000-100.00410—17:24
25D. NurseD000-320.102112—16:27
91E. KaneL000-130.2950010014:49
71R. McLeodC000-120.170203613:31
90C. PerryR000-300.02000—13:25
13M. JanmarkC000-110.140005013:01
37W. FoegeleL000030.12010—12:44
19A. HenriqueC000-100.004005012:41
28C. BrownR000-100.00100—11:55
39S. CarrickC000-140.391105009:54
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30C. Pickard(L)32275.8443.37-1.6359:49

Season series

DAL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).