Blackhawks at Islanders 1-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Chicago Blackhawks

New York Islanders

▸2

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Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Chicago Blackhawks 2-1. The Blackhawks scored first; the Islanders answered. The Blackhawks led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Simon Holmstrom's goal at 9:25 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 52% to 83%. Expected goals were close — CHI 2.1, NYI 2.1; shots on goal were CHI 19, NYI 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Petr Mrazek stopped 27 of 29 (.931); Ilya Sorokin stopped 18 of 19 (.947), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Bo Horvat (1 G), 2. Ilya Sorokin (18 saves, .947), 3. Simon Holmstrom (1 G).

Three stars

★
B. Horvat1 G
★★
I. Sorokin18 saves, .947
★★★
S. Holmstrom1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	18	06	05	119
NYI	012	012	25	229

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

J. Dickinson(21)
C. Bedard (37), P. Kurashev (34)
wristxG 0.22win prob +13 ptsVideo
1-0
7:49

3rd period

B. Horvat(31)PPG
M. Barzal (53), C. Cizikas (13)
snapxG 0.17win prob +21 ptsVideo
1-1
1:33
S. Holmstrom(14)
J. Pageau (21), A. Lee (15)
wristxG 0.13win prob +31 ptsVideo
1-2
9:25

Penalties

9 PIM·

7 PIM

1st

18:30Matt Martin · Fightingdrawn by Jarred Tinordi5 min
18:30Jarred Tinordi · Fightingdrawn by Matt Martin5 min

3rd

0:10Philipp Kurashev · Holdingdrawn by Adam Pelech2 min
4:53Ryan Donato · Trippingdrawn by Noah Dobson2 min
12:37Mike Reilly · Holdingdrawn by Connor Bedard2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYI

100%

Biggest swing: Simon Holmstrom, 3rd 9:25 — NYI 52% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 2.1 xG · 42 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 2.1 xG · 28 att NYI

2 G · 2.1 xG · 42 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.11 G
All situations: 2 G2.1; 2.01 G
Even strength: 1 G2.0; 0.10 G
Power play: 1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 70 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

49%51%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.06 – 2.12

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

19
Shots on goal: 29; 38%
Faceoffs: 62%; 0/1
Power play: 1/2; 9
Penalty minutes: 7; 12
Hits: 11; 14
Blocked shots: 12; 7
Giveaways: 4; 4
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Chicago Blackhawks skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
4S. JonesD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.09	0	3	0	—	26:01
98C. BedardC	0	1	1	+1	4	0.46	1	1	0	0	22:52
23P. KurashevC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.38	0	0	2	100	22:22
72A. VlasicD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	1	3	0	—	21:35
16J. DickinsonC	1	0	1	+1	3	0.38	0	3	0	47	20:07
44W. KaiserD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	2	0	—	18:50
55K. KorchinskiD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	18:25
17N. FolignoL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	0	25	17:04
90T. JohnsonC	0	0	0	0	1	0.21	1	0	0	50	16:49
24J. MegnaD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	15:58
25J. TinordiD	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	3	1	5	—	14:34
11T. RaddyshR	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	0	0	0	—	14:09
15J. AndersonR	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	12:55
58M. EntwistleR	0	0	0	0	0	0.07	0	1	0	22	12:09
27L. ReichelL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	11:50
89A. AthanasiouC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.11	0	0	0	33	11:26
8R. DonatoC	0	0	0	0	1	0.21	2	0	2	100	11:00
84L. SlaggertL	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	1	0	0	—	10:35

Chicago Blackhawks goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
34P. Mrazek(L)	29	27	2	.931	2.13	+0.13	57:56

Season series

Tied 1-1

Jan 193@4OTFinal
Apr 21@2this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Chicago Blackhawks at New York Islanders

1st period

3rd period

1st

3rd

Box score