Skip to content
Oilers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
3
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸6
FinalTV CBC, SN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Edmonton Oilers 6-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 5-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was William Nylander's goal at 18:14 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 70% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 3.5 to 2.6; shots on goal were EDM 39, TOR 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Stuart Skinner stopped 18 of 23 (.783), 3.3 goals below expected; Ilya Samsonov stopped 31 of 34 (.912). Three stars: 1. Bobby McMann (2 G, 1 A), 2. Pontus Holmberg (2 G), 3. Connor McDavid (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    B. McMann2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    P. Holmberg2 G
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    C. McDavid3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
EDMEDM06015318339
TORTOR21031316629

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    B. McMann(12)
    J. Tavares (32), T. Liljegren (19)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    4:17
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(39)PPG
    T. Liljegren (20)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-2
    18:14

2nd period

  1. TOR
    P. Holmberg(5)
    M. Domi (32), A. Matthews (33)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +8 ptsVideo
    0-3
    8:02
  2. TOR
    P. Holmberg(6)
    B. McMann (9), M. Rielly (44)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +3 ptsVideo
    0-4
    11:04
  3. TOR
    B. McMann(13)
    W. Nylander (54), J. Tavares (33)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +1 ptsVideo
    0-5
    15:46

3rd period

  1. EDM
    Z. Hyman(49)PPG
    C. McDavid (87), E. Bouchard (53)
    tip-inxG 0.11Video
    1-5
    4:59
  2. EDM
    C. Perry(10)PPG
    E. Kane (18), C. McDavid (88)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +1 ptsVideo
    2-5
    8:32
  3. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(36)
    C. McDavid (89), E. Bouchard (54)
    snapxG 0.12Video
    3-5
    16:21
  4. TOR
    A. Matthews(58)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.45Video
    3-6
    19:47

Penalties

EDM 23 PIM·TOR 17 PIM

1st

  • 0:46TORMatthew Knies · Trippingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
  • 14:47TORJohn Tavares · Holdingdrawn by Evan Bouchard2 min
  • 16:57EDMDarnell Nurse · Interferencedrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 18:33EDMEvander Kane · Trippingdrawn by Conor Timmins2 min

2nd

  • 8:50TORConor Timmins · Cross checkingdrawn by Warren Foegele2 min
  • 9:26EDMLeon Draisaitl · Slashingdrawn by Joel Edmundson2 min
  • 9:26TORJoel Edmundson · Roughingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
  • 20:00EDMDarnell Nurse · Roughingdrawn by Joel Edmundson2 min
  • 20:00EDMDarnell Nurse · Misconduct10 min

3rd

  • 3:21TORConor Timmins · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 6:35TORConnor Dewar · Trippingdrawn by Mattias Janmark2 min
  • 12:36EDMMattias Janmark · Fightingdrawn by Max Domi5 min
  • 12:36TORMax Domi · Fightingdrawn by Mattias Janmark5 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalEDM goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: William Nylander, 1st 18:14 — TOR 70% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.45W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.19N. Gregor · On goal · xG 0.13W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.12W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.12M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.12P. Holmberg · Goal · xG 0.10B. McMann · Goal · xG 0.10B. McMann · Goal · xG 0.09J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.09B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.09N. Gregor · Missed · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06P. Holmberg · Goal · xG 0.05B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.04J. Edmundson · On goal · xG 0.04C. Dewar · On goal · xG 0.04J. Edmundson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.03J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.03N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.03C. Dewar · On goal · xG 0.03D. Kampf · Missed · xG 0.02N. Gregor · Missed · xG 0.02N. Gregor · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01J. Edmundson · On goal · xG 0.01N. Gregor · On goal · xG 0.01T. Liljegren · Missed · xG 0.01B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.01N. Gregor · On goal · xG 0.01C. Dewar · On goal · xG 0.01C. Timmins · Missed · xG 0.00
TOR6 G · 2.6 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsTOR
3.53 G
All situations
5 G2.6
1.61 G
Even strength
4 G1.4
1.82 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM72%28%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.50 – 2.15

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsTOR
39
Shots on goal
29
53%
Faceoffs
47%
2/5
Power play
1/3
23
Penalty minutes
17
31
Hits
33
11
Blocked shots
28
9
Giveaways
11
5
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2E. BouchardD022-250.31300—28:26
97C. McDavidC033-110.141106223:30
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC000-110.262005623:04
14M. EkholmD000-240.15110—22:54
18Z. HymanL101-140.47200—22:21
29L. DraisaitlC101-150.822026221:29
5C. CeciD000010.05000—17:28
25D. NurseD000-200.062014—15:38
91E. KaneL011-120.2810210015:21
73V. DesharnaisD000-100.00150—14:03
19A. HenriqueC000-110.113005613:19
27B. KulakD000030.09220—13:18
90C. PerryR101-150.29200—13:01
37W. FoegeleL000-140.23010—12:35
71R. McLeodC000-210.08100012:33
28C. BrownR000-120.04210—11:53
13M. JanmarkC000-100.12205010:09
39S. CarrickC000-100.004003308:21
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74S. Skinner(L)23185.7831.71-3.2939:40
30C. Pickard5501.0000.46+0.4615:40

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).