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Senators at Islanders
NHL

Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders

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Ottawa Senators
▸4
New York Islanders
3
Final/OTTV MSGSN, TSN5·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the New York Islanders 4-3 in overtime, Brady Tkachuk scoring at 4:36. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Islanders led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brady Tkachuk's goal at 4:36 of overtime, which took the Senators' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 2.1 to 1.5; shots on goal were OTT 30, NYI 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Joonas Korpisalo stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 1.5 goals below expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brady Tkachuk (3 G), 2. Tim Stützle (3 A), 3. Bo Horvat (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk3 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    T. Stützle3 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    B. Horvat1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
OTTOTT081122614430
NYINYI1511311302333

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    M. Martin(3)
    C. Clutterbuck (12), K. MacLean (2)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.06win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    4:27

2nd period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(28)
    D. Batherson (26), E. Brannstrom (12)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +19 ptsVideo
    1-1
    11:46
  2. NYI
    K. Palmieri(21)
    J. Pageau (19), A. Lee (12)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +21 ptsVideo
    1-2
    16:22

3rd period

  1. OTT
    R. Greig(10)
    T. Stützle (45), A. Zub (20)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +27 ptsVideo
    2-2
    6:35
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(29)PPG
    T. Stützle (46), D. Batherson (27)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +28 ptsVideo
    3-2
    12:14
  3. NYI
    B. Horvat(27)PPG
    N. Dobson (57), M. Barzal (49)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +44 ptsVideo
    3-3
    19:22

Overtime

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(30)PPG
    S. Pinto (13), T. Stützle (47)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +51 ptsVideo
    4-3
    4:36

Penalties

OTT 6 PIM·NYI 6 PIM

1st

  • 2:24OTTParker Kelly · Interferencedrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 18:17NYIBrock Nelson · Hookingdrawn by Artem Zub2 min

2nd

  • 2:53OTTDominik Kubalik · Hookingdrawn by Noah Dobson2 min

3rd

  • 11:58NYINoah Dobson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 18:10OTTMathieu Joseph · Hookingdrawn by Mike Reilly2 min

OT

  • 3:05NYIBo Horvat · Holdingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalOTT goalFinal: NYI 0%

Biggest swing: Brady Tkachuk, OT 4:36 — OTT 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.13B. Horvat · Goal · xG 0.10M. Barzal · Missed · xG 0.09B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.09M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.08P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.08K. MacLean · On goal · xG 0.07K. MacLean · On goal · xG 0.07M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.06M. Martin · Goal · xG 0.06B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.05B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.05N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.05P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.05N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.04K. Palmieri · Goal · xG 0.04N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.04S. Holmstrom · On goal · xG 0.03S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.03M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.03B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.03P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.02N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.02M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.02P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.02N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.01N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.01N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.01S. Holmstrom · On goal · xG 0.01C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.01R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.01K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.01K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.01M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.00P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI3 G · 1.5 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsNYI
2.14 G
All situations
3 G1.5
1.62 G
Even strength
2 G1.2
0.52 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT63%37%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.13 – 1.51

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsNYI
30
Shots on goal
33
54%
Faceoffs
46%
2/3
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
18
Hits
25
22
Blocked shots
18
10
Giveaways
7
4
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
85J. SandersonD000+130.07030—25:09
6J. ChychrunD000-230.07020—25:05
18T. StützleC033010.221205023:44
28C. GirouxR000+120.120205622:24
2A. ZubD011+120.02630—21:45
19D. BathersonR022+140.33100—19:35
7B. TkachukL303+160.610006719:15
24J. Bernard-DockerD000-100.00220—18:15
26E. BrannstromD011+100.06020—17:31
21M. JosephR000-100.04102—16:50
57S. PintoC011+110.131105016:31
71R. GreigC101+130.33200015:24
50M. GuenetteD000030.08110—14:45
81D. KubalikL000000.00002—12:27
27P. KellyC000-200.01012011:54
38Z. OstapchukC000000.001306011:22
12M. KastelicC000-120.062007509:24
14B. KatchoukL000-100.00000—08:50
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70J. Korpisalo(W)33303.9091.51-1.4964:33

Season series

NYI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).