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Sabres at Lightning
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸3
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
Final/OTTV MSG-B, BSSUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-2 in overtime, Rasmus Dahlin scoring at 1:42. The Lightning scored first; the Sabres answered. The Lightning led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Rasmus Dahlin's goal at 1:42 of overtime, which took the Sabres' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.0 to 1.8; shots on goal were BUF 23, TBL 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 21 of 23 (.913); Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 20 of 23 (.870), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Rasmus Dahlin (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mitchell Chaffee (1 G), 3. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (21 saves, .913).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    R. Dahlin1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    M. Chaffee1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    U. Luukkonen21 saves, .913

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF15071912323
TBLTBL18180700223

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(31)PPG
    N. Kucherov (66), V. Hedman (50)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-1
    8:12
  2. BUF
    A. Tuch(17)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.09win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    10:59

2nd period

  1. TBL
    M. Chaffee(3)
    E. Cernak (8), A. Cirelli (20)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +22 ptsVideo
    1-2
    17:18

3rd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(18)PPG
    R. Dahlin (31)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +28 ptsVideo
    2-2
    11:33

Overtime

  1. BUF
    R. Dahlin(15)PPG
    C. Mittelstadt (32), J. Greenway (12)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +51 pts
    3-2
    1:42

Penalties

BUF 6 PIM·TBL 6 PIM

1st

  • 7:50BUFJordan Greenway · Hookingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

2nd

  • 12:30BUFCasey Mittelstadt · Elbowingdrawn by Tyler Motte2 min

3rd

  • 10:21TBLBrayden Point · High stickingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min
  • 13:10BUFZach Benson · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 16:34TBLVictor Hedman · Hookingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min

OT

  • 1:16TBLNikita Kucherov · Hookingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalBUF goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Rasmus Dahlin, OT 1:42 — BUF 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Point · Goal · xG 0.22N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.19B. Point · On goal · xG 0.17S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.16S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.15B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.10M. Chaffee · Goal · xG 0.10V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.08N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.08V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.05M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.05B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03T. Motte · On goal · xG 0.03L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.02H. Fleury · Missed · xG 0.02L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.01H. Fleury · Missed · xG 0.01C. de Haan · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.00T. Motte · On goal · xG 0.00E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL2 G · 2.0 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTBL
1.83 G
All situations
2 G2.0
1.11 G
Even strength
1 G1.8
0.42 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 64 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF45%55%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.77 – 2.02

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsTBL
23
Shots on goal
23
43%
Faceoffs
57%
2/3
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
31
Hits
28
11
Blocked shots
20
3
Giveaways
4
10
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD112020.32220—27:55
25O. PowerD000000.07100—24:18
37C. MittelstadtC011000.001023620:21
10H. JokiharjuD000020.04300—18:59
12J. GreenwayL011+140.23212—18:15
89A. TuchR101+120.20120—17:34
72T. ThompsonC101+130.350204217:23
24D. CozensC000-120.123005016:57
75C. CliftonD000010.04530—16:28
78J. BrysonD000000.00010—16:18
50E. RobinsonL000020.09300—15:28
33R. JohnsonD000010.01200—14:40
28Z. GirgensonsC000000.0530010014:25
21K. OkposoR000010.11400—13:28
53J. SkinnerL000020.08000—13:13
9Z. BensonL000-110.04002—12:46
77J. PeterkaR000-100.00100—11:57
19P. KrebsC000000.000003310:45
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(W)23212.9132.02+0.0261:42

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).