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Avalanche at Red Wings
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
1
Detroit Red Wings
▸2
Final/OTTV BSDET, ALT2·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Colorado Avalanche 2-1 in overtime, Patrick Kane scoring at 3:42. The Avalanche scored first; the Red Wings answered. The Avalanche led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Patrick Kane's goal at 3:42 of overtime, which took the Red Wings' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 3.4 to 3.1; shots on goal were COL 31, DET 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Justus Annunen stopped 28 of 30 (.933), 1.4 goals saved above expected; Alex Lyon stopped 30 of 31 (.968), 2.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Patrick Kane (1 G), 2. Dylan Larkin (1 G, 1 A), 3. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    P. Kane1 G
  2. ★★
    DET
    D. Larkin1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL011190902131
DETDET0501111212230

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(34)
    M. Rantanen (43), J. Johnson (10)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-0
    4:48

3rd period

  1. DET
    D. Larkin(25)PPG
    D. Perron (16), S. Gostisbehere (27)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +31 ptsVideo
    1-1
    12:02

Overtime

  1. DET
    P. Kane(10)
    D. Larkin (26), B. Chiarot (11)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +49 ptsVideo
    1-2
    3:42

Penalties

COL 8 PIM·DET 6 PIM

1st

  • 16:51DETMoritz Seider · Trippingdrawn by Jonathan Drouin2 min
  • 17:50COLJonathan Drouin · Trippingdrawn by Jake Walman2 min

2nd

  • 7:25COLMikko Rantanen · Hookingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min

3rd

  • 0:24DETMichael Rasmussen · Interferencedrawn by Josh Manson2 min
  • 10:59COLJonathan Drouin · Trippingdrawn by Lucas Raymond2 min
  • 13:37DETAlex DeBrincat · Trippingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 18:51COLLogan O'Connor · Holdingdrawn by Ben Chiarot2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalCOL goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: Patrick Kane, OT 3:42 — DET 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.22J. Walman · Missed · xG 0.21P. Kane · Goal · xG 0.20D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.19M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.19P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.17A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.17A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.14L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.13D. Sprong · On goal · xG 0.12L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.11R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.10L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.10J. Veleno · Missed · xG 0.10P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.09M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.09D. Perron · Missed · xG 0.08J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.08S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.08D. Sprong · On goal · xG 0.07S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.07J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.07B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.06L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.06D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.05P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.05B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.05S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.04A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.04A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.03S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.03D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.03C. Fischer · On goal · xG 0.03L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.03P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.03B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.03S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.02J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.01J. Petry · Missed · xG 0.01A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.01A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.01D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.01L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.01M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.01J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.00
DET2 G · 3.4 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsDET
3.11 G
All situations
2 G3.4
2.71 G
Even strength
1 G2.6
0.20 G
Power play
1 G0.9
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL44%56%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.04 – 3.43

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsDET
31
Shots on goal
30
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/3
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
15
Hits
16
11
Blocked shots
20
6
Giveaways
7
7
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD000030.08030—27:05
96M. RantanenR011+110.2400210025:05
7D. ToewsD000-120.01010—24:45
29N. MacKinnonC1010111.310006124:10
27J. DrouinL000010.13104—20:59
62A. LehkonenL000000.00110—19:37
4B. ByramD000+120.23120—19:12
42J. MansonD000030.36210—17:55
49S. GirardD000000.00120—17:39
25L. O'ConnorR000010.11202—16:56
28M. WoodL000010.17100—15:51
20R. ColtonC000010.090004615:26
9Z. PariseL000010.04000—15:04
3J. JohnsonD011+100.03100—14:43
12R. JohansenC000010.121004011:40
14C. WagnerR000020.131005007:49
94J. KivirantaL000000.00110—06:21
56K. MacDermidL000010.02200—05:09
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Annunen(O)30282.9333.44+1.4463:42

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).