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Hurricanes at Stars
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
2
Dallas Stars
▸4
FinalTV BSSW, BSSO·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Carolina Hurricanes 4-2. The Stars scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jason Robertson's goal at 4:35 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 52% to 79%. Expected goals were close — CAR 2.6, DAL 2.6; shots on goal were CAR 34, DAL 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 1.1 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 32 of 34 (.941), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Oettinger (32 saves, .941), 2. Jason Robertson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jordan Staal (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Oettinger32 saves, .941
  2. ★★
    DAL
    J. Robertson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    J. Staal1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR01221309234
DALDAL181827423

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    R. Hintz(23)
    J. Pavelski (26), J. Robertson (36)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    9:53

2nd period

  1. CAR
    J. Staal(7)
    S. Jarvis (25), J. Martinook (10)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-1
    0:13
  2. DAL
    M. Marchment(17)
    N. Lundkvist (13), M. Duchene (31)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-2
    5:04
  3. CAR
    J. Fast(6)
    J. Martinook (11), J. Staal (11)
    deflectedxG 0.15win prob +21 ptsVideo
    2-2
    15:16

3rd period

  1. DAL
    J. Robertson(18)
    J. Pavelski (27), J. Hakanpää (7)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +26 ptsVideo
    2-3
    4:35
  2. DAL
    M. Duchene(19)EN
    J. Hakanpää (8)
    wristxG 0.56win prob +7 ptsVideo
    2-4
    17:35

Penalties

CAR 2 PIM·DAL 2 PIM

2nd

  • 12:42DALRoope Hintz · Holdingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min

3rd

  • 8:01CARDmitry Orlov · Holding the stickdrawn by Mason Marchment2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCAR goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Jason Robertson, 3rd 4:35 — DAL 52% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.56W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.19T. Dellandrea · Missed · xG 0.16M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.15T. Dellandrea · On goal · xG 0.13J. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.11T. Dellandrea · On goal · xG 0.11J. Hakanpää · Missed · xG 0.10J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.10M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.09R. Hintz · Goal · xG 0.09T. Dellandrea · On goal · xG 0.08T. Dellandrea · On goal · xG 0.08R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.07J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.07M. Marchment · Goal · xG 0.07J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.07S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.07R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.05T. Dellandrea · On goal · xG 0.04T. Dellandrea · On goal · xG 0.04R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.04C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.03R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.02S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02N. Lundkvist · Missed · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.01T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.01
DAL4 G · 2.6 xG · 30 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsDAL
2.62 G
All situations
3 G2.6
2.02 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.50 G
Power play
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR63%37%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.54 – 1.86

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsDAL
34
Shots on goal
23
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/1
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
2
26
Hits
34
12
Blocked shots
30
9
Giveaways
13
6
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8B. BurnsD000-140.10050—25:24
74J. SlavinD000010.13430—23:29
76B. SkjeiD000-340.11200—19:32
20S. AhoC000-200.040005719:13
88M. NecasC000-250.213106718:43
58M. BuntingL000-130.21200—18:30
37A. SvechnikovR000-200.08400—17:55
86T. TeravainenC000-200.18100017:44
24S. JarvisR011030.350008017:18
22B. PesceD000-350.27000—17:18
7D. OrlovD000+200.00112—16:36
5J. ChatfieldD000+110.05100—16:04
18J. DruryC000-110.081104015:43
11J. StaalC112+120.252005514:42
48J. MartinookL022+100.0001010014:04
71J. FastR101+120.21100—09:40
82J. KotkaniemiC000020.191001709:21
23S. NoesenR000010.113004009:08
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
52P. Kochetkov(L)22193.8641.87-1.1357:36

Season series

DAL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).