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Stars at Sabres
NHL

Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres

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Dallas Stars
▸2
Buffalo Sabres
1
FinalTV MSG-B, BSSWX·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Buffalo Sabres 2-1. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sam Steel's goal at 9:04 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 47% to 66%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 4.1 to 3.4; shots on goal were DAL 30, BUF 48. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 47 of 48 (.979), 2.4 goals saved above expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 28 of 30 (.933), 2.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Oettinger (47 saves, .979), 2. Sam Steel (1 G), 3. Tage Thompson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Oettinger47 saves, .979
  2. ★★
    DAL
    S. Steel1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL1814018230
BUFBUF016116016148

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    M. Duchene(18)PPG
    T. Seguin (23), M. Marchment (22)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-0
    3:58

2nd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(15)PPG
    R. Dahlin (26), J. Skinner (17)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    5:53
  2. DAL
    S. Steel(6)
    R. Faksa (8), C. Smith (4)
    deflectedxG 0.27win prob +19 ptsVideo
    2-1
    9:04

Penalties

DAL 8 PIM·BUF 10 PIM

1st

  • 2:34BUFTage Thompson · Hookingdrawn by Joe Pavelski2 min

2nd

  • 4:39DALRoope Hintz · Holdingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min
  • 11:48DALMiro Heiskanen · Holdingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 13:58DALSam Steel · High stickingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min

3rd

  • 0:43DALMatt Duchene · Holdingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 7:07BUFJordan Greenway · Holdingdrawn by Miro Heiskanen2 min
  • 7:49BUFUkko-Pekka Luukkonen · Trippingdrawn by Jamie Benn2 min
  • 15:28BUFHenri Jokiharju · Trippingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min
  • 17:11BUFConnor Clifton · Cross checkingdrawn by Wyatt Johnston2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalDAL goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Sam Steel, 2nd 9:04 — DAL 47% → 66%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.40E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.20T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.18Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.13D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.12D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.12R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.11Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.10T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.10D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.09J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.09T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.09J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.09D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.08J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.07C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.07J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.06J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.06A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.06T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.06T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.05A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.05J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.04D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.04C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.04O. Power · On goal · xG 0.04K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.03O. Power · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03C. Clifton · On goal · xG 0.03O. Power · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.03P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.03C. Clifton · On goal · xG 0.03C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.03J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.03D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.02J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.02O. Power · On goal · xG 0.02J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.02R. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.02E. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01R. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.01T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF1 G · 3.4 xG · 59 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsBUF
4.12 G
All situations
1 G3.4
2.11 G
Even strength
0 G1.8
2.01 G
Power play
1 G1.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 106 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL61%39%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.03 – 3.35

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsBUF
30
Shots on goal
48
60%
Faceoffs
40%
1/5
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
10
17
Hits
13
23
Blocked shots
13
1
Giveaways
8
5
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD000+140.14032—24:08
55T. HarleyD000+100.07040—22:35
24R. HintzC000020.400125019:36
23E. LindellD000000.00030—19:17
53W. JohnstonC000030.450204419:06
2J. HakanpääD000020.02200—18:34
21J. RobertsonL000020.66200—18:14
95M. DucheneC101040.521125617:41
91T. SeguinC011030.122205617:04
20R. SuterD000000.01110—16:25
14J. BennL000000.003008615:22
16J. PavelskiC000020.450107614:58
27M. MarchmentL011010.27010—12:41
5N. LundkvistD000010.03020—12:39
63E. DadonovL000030.47000—12:17
18S. SteelC101+120.272025012:08
12R. FaksaC011+100.013106310:48
15C. SmithC011+110.19110009:13
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(W)48471.9793.38+2.3860:00

Season series

DAL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).