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Avalanche at Maple Leafs
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
FinalTV NHLN, ALT·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-3. The Avalanche came back from three goals down. The Maple Leafs led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 16:35 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 48% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.7 to 2.0; shots on goal were COL 33, TOR 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 1.0 goals below expected; Martin Jones stopped 28 of 32 (.875). Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jonathan Drouin (1 G, 1 A), 3. Morgan Rielly (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    J. Drouin1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Rielly1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL07213313533
TORTOR3150806329

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Domi(4)
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.02win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    6:23
  2. TOR
    M. Rielly(6)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    10:47
  3. TOR
    T. Liljegren(2)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.19win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-3
    15:04

2nd period

  1. COL
    J. Drouin(10)PPG
    R. Colton (10), N. MacKinnon (46)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +7 ptsVideo
    1-3
    5:27
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(22)
    S. Girard (6)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-3
    13:13

3rd period

  1. COL
    A. Cogliano(4)
    J. Manson (8), L. O'Connor (10)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +28 ptsVideo
    3-3
    7:35
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(23)
    M. Rantanen (33), J. Drouin (14)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +42 ptsVideo
    4-3
    16:35
  3. COL
    R. Colton(9)EN
    R. Johansen (6), J. Kiviranta (4)
    wristxG 0.62win prob +6 ptsVideo
    5-3
    19:53

Penalties

COL 2 PIM·TOR 8 PIM

2nd

  • 5:17TORMark Giordano · Holdingdrawn by Jonathan Drouin2 min
  • 5:27TORDavid Kampf · High stickingdrawn by Ross Colton2 min
  • 8:28COLLogan O'Connor · Trippingdrawn by Jake McCabe2 min

3rd

  • 4:58TORJohn Tavares · Hookingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 9:15TORJake McCabe · Interferencedrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalCOL goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 3rd 16:35 — COL 48% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.26M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.23T. Liljegren · Goal · xG 0.19M. Rielly · Goal · xG 0.13M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.12A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.09P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.09C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.09M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.08N. Gregor · On goal · xG 0.07T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.05M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.05M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.04W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.04T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.03P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.03D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.02W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.02W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02M. Domi · Goal · xG 0.02B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.02P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.02N. Gregor · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.01T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.01B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.01B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.01T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.01C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.00T. Liljegren · Missed · xG 0.00T. Liljegren · Missed · xG 0.00M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.00M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.00J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR3 G · 2.0 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsTOR
4.74 G
All situations
3 G2.0
2.23 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
1.41 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 101 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL76%24%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.50 – 1.89

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsTOR
33
Shots on goal
29
51%
Faceoffs
49%
1/4
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
8
33
Hits
29
15
Blocked shots
17
8
Giveaways
16
7
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
96M. RantanenR112+140.582103325:14
8C. MakarD000+150.39010—25:09
27J. DrouinL112+230.77100—25:02
29N. MacKinnonC112+150.441206424:56
7D. ToewsD000+130.35030—24:11
49S. GirardD011000.01230—19:43
20R. ColtonC112031.386005019:01
42J. MansonD011000.02610—18:15
25L. O'ConnorR011020.09302—16:59
70S. MalinskiD000010.03100—15:28
12R. JohansenC011+120.271005715:16
94J. KivirantaL011+120.1850010015:14
11A. CoglianoC101+110.10100012:34
3J. JohnsonD000000.03120—10:16
41J. PolinR000020.09200—10:11
22F. OlofssonL000-100.000004209:38
82C. JonesD000-200.00010—07:21
56K. MacDermidL000-100.00110—03:58
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(W)29263.8971.97-1.0359:34

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).