Skip to content
Sabres at Avalanche
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
FinalTV TNT, MAX·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Valeri Nichushkin's goal at 10:28 of the first period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 67% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.0 to 2.4; shots on goal were BUF 30, COL 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 24 of 29 (.828), 2.0 goals below expected; Ivan Prosvetov stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Sam Malinski (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 2 A), 3. Valeri Nichushkin (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    S. Malinski1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    V. Nichushkin2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF1601509130
COLCOL3150529529

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    M. Rantanen(14)
    N. MacKinnon (28), C. Makar (29)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.08win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:25
  2. COL
    V. Nichushkin(11)
    F. Olofsson (4), M. Rantanen (22)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    10:28
  3. COL
    M. Wood(5)
    S. Malinski (3)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-3
    11:55
  4. BUF
    Z. Benson(3)
    R. Dahlin (17), J. Peterka (10)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-3
    18:38

3rd period

  1. COL
    S. Malinski(1)
    J. Johnson (4), J. Drouin (6)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +6 ptsVideo
    1-4
    2:40
  2. COL
    V. Nichushkin(12)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (29), M. Rantanen (23)
    wristxG 0.16Video
    1-5
    13:11

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·COL 4 PIM

1st

  • 15:13BUFZach Benson · High stickingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 19:42COLMikko Rantanen · Holdingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min

2nd

  • 8:03COLMiles Wood · Roughingdrawn by Zach Benson2 min

3rd

  • 12:23BUFTyson Jost · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalBUF goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Valeri Nichushkin, 1st 10:28 — COL 67% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.27C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.25V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.18V. Nichushkin · Goal · xG 0.18V. Nichushkin · Goal · xG 0.16V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.15V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.12R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.11F. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.11B. Meyers · On goal · xG 0.10V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.10J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.10B. Meyers · On goal · xG 0.09V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.09R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.09V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.09M. Wood · Goal · xG 0.08B. Meyers · Missed · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.08R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.06C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.03S. Malinski · Goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.02C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.02V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.01S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.01J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.01J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.00B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.00
COL5 G · 3.0 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsCOL
2.41 G
All situations
5 G3.0
2.01 G
Even strength
4 G2.5
0.40 G
Power play
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF39%61%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.31 – 2.95

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsCOL
30
Shots on goal
29
50%
Faceoffs
50%
0/2
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
22
Hits
14
15
Blocked shots
21
5
Giveaways
9
5
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25O. PowerD000010.04110—24:01
26R. DahlinD011-140.22210—22:21
23M. SamuelssonD000020.13130—20:51
10H. JokiharjuD000-100.01120—19:50
37C. MittelstadtC000-110.161006019:34
89A. TuchR000030.2511010019:01
72T. ThompsonC000+150.422002716:20
77J. PeterkaR011030.10000—15:58
24D. CozensC000040.433005915:54
9Z. BensonL101+130.34012—15:34
19P. KrebsC000-210.053102515:15
50E. RobinsonL000-200.00200—14:55
75C. CliftonD000-200.01100—14:54
21K. OkposoR000-200.001103314:23
6E. JohnsonD000-220.05120—14:05
17T. JostC000-200.002128013:50
71V. OlofssonL000-100.14000—12:29
53J. SkinnerL000-110.04010—07:57
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(L)29245.8282.98-2.0260:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).