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Coyotes at Sabres
NHL

Utah Mammoth at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Utah Mammoth
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
FinalTV MSG-B, SCRIPPS·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Utah Mammoth 5-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Eric Robinson's goal at 6:14 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.7 to 1.8; shots on goal were ARI 23, BUF 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Karel Vejmelka stopped 33 of 37 (.892), 0.7 goals below expected; Devon Levi stopped 21 of 23 (.913). Three stars: 1. Eric Robinson (1 G, 2 A), 2. Kyle Okposo (1 G, 2 A), 3. Connor Clifton (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    E. Robinson1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    K. Okposo1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    C. Clifton2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
ARIARI0511018223
BUFBUF113315110538

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    K. Okposo(5)
    E. Robinson (1), C. Clifton (5)
    wristxG 0.40win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    2:25

2nd period

  1. ARI
    M. Kesselring(1)
    L. Cooley (12), M. Kelemen (1)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    3:01
  2. BUF
    E. Robinson(2)
    K. Okposo (5), C. Clifton (6)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-2
    6:14
  3. BUF
    P. Krebs(2)
    K. Okposo (6), E. Robinson (2)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-3
    10:52
  4. BUF
    J. Peterka(12)
    J. Skinner (10), R. Dahlin (16)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +7 ptsVideo
    1-4
    15:06

3rd period

  1. ARI
    M. Carcone(14)SHG
    M. Maccelli (16), J. Moser (11)
    wristxG 0.28win prob +2 ptsVideo
    2-4
    12:47
  2. BUF
    R. Dahlin(7)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.48win prob +1 ptsVideo
    2-5
    18:55

Penalties

ARI 4 PIM·BUF 6 PIM

1st

  • 4:23BUFZach Benson · Cross checkingdrawn by Juuso Välimäki2 min
  • 9:47BUFCasey Mittelstadt · Hookingdrawn by Nick Bjugstad2 min

3rd

  • 10:43BUFTage Thompson · Trippingdrawn by Logan Cooley2 min
  • 11:14ARIClayton Keller · High stickingdrawn by Connor Clifton2 min
  • 16:06ARILogan Cooley · Hookingdrawn by Zach Benson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalARI goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Eric Robinson, 2nd 6:14 — BUF 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.90R. Dahlin · Goal · xG 0.48K. Okposo · Goal · xG 0.40B. Murray · On goal · xG 0.20E. Robinson · Goal · xG 0.19J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.16J. Peterka · Goal · xG 0.16E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.15D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.13E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.12E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.11T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.10C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.10C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.10J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.10D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.09K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.09T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.09T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.09P. Krebs · Goal · xG 0.08E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.08K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.08J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.06Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.06T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.06J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.05D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.04V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.03T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.03D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.02O. Power · On goal · xG 0.02J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.02D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01R. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.01C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.00C. Clifton · On goal · xG 0.00T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.00T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF5 G · 4.7 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ARIvsBUF
1.82 G
All situations
4 G4.7
1.31 G
Even strength
4 G2.9
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.31 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ARI26%74%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.75 – 3.12

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ARIvsBUF
23
Shots on goal
38
42%
Faceoffs
58%
0/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
27
Hits
21
11
Blocked shots
9
7
Giveaways
5
5
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
24M. DumbaD000+100.00310—21:31
9C. KellerR000-200.05012—20:54
90J. MoserD011+110.02200—20:42
16J. ZuckerL000-110.22000—20:28
63M. MaccelliL011-140.33000—19:56
4J. VälimäkiD000-110.01100—19:32
8N. SchmaltzC000010.100006419:06
92L. CooleyC011-210.100123018:35
51T. StecherD000-210.02010—17:49
17N. BjugstadC000-140.135003317:44
67L. CrouseL000-130.27310—17:36
15A. KerfootC000-220.090105414:45
33T. DermottD000-210.03010—12:29
53M. CarconeL101-110.31200—12:15
3J. BrownD000-200.00420—12:03
38L. O'BrienC000000.00400011:27
5M. KesselringD101020.10210—11:07
21M. KelemenL011-100.00110—08:22
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70K. Vejmelka(L)37334.8923.29-0.7159:39

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).