Predators at Sabres 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Nashville Predators

▸2

Buffalo Sabres

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Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Buffalo Sabres 2-1. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Victor Olofsson's goal at 10:02 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 17% to 34%. Expected goals were close — NSH 3.1, BUF 3.1; shots on goal were NSH 29, BUF 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 34 of 35 (.971), 2.1 goals saved above expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 27 of 29 (.931), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Juuse Saros (34 saves, .971), 2. Filip Forsberg (1 G), 3. Victor Olofsson (1 G).

Three stars

★
J. Saros34 saves, .971
★★
F. Forsberg1 G
★★★
V. Olofsson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	214	08	07	229
BUF	011	112	012	135

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

F. Forsberg(13)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.03win prob +13 ptsVideo
1-0
9:40
Y. Trenin(5)
C. Sissons (5), C. Smith (5)
slapxG 0.01win prob +16 ptsVideo
2-0
10:54

2nd period

V. Olofsson(3)Penalty shot
Unassisted
wristxG 0.31win prob +17 ptsVideo
2-1
10:02

Penalties

2 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

14:31Rasmus Dahlin · Hookingdrawn by Juuso Parssinen2 min

2nd

10:02Jeremy Lauzon · Ps tripping on breakawaydrawn by Victor Olofsson0 min
20:00Colton Sissons · Roughingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min
20:00Peyton Krebs · Roughingdrawn by Colton Sissons2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: BUF

Biggest swing: Victor Olofsson, 2nd 10:02 — BUF 17% → 34%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 3.1 xG · 55 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 3.1 xG · 44 att BUF

1 G · 3.1 xG · 55 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.12 G
All situations: 1 G3.1; 2.52 G
Even strength: 1 G2.5; 0.60 G
Power play: 0 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

49%51%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.02 – 3.05

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

29
Shots on goal: 35; 59%
Faceoffs: 41%; 0/1
Power play: 0/0; 2
Penalty minutes: 4; 25
Hits: 19; 12
Blocked shots: 14; 2
Giveaways: 4; 4
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Nashville Predators skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
59R. JosiD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.16	1	1	0	—	24:04
27R. McDonaghD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	22:20
3J. LauzonD	0	0	0	0	2	0.13	2	1	0	—	19:57
90R. O'ReillyC	0	0	0	+1	5	0.69	0	1	0	65	18:45
57D. FabbroD	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	0	1	0	—	18:44
14G. NyquistR	0	0	0	+1	4	0.40	0	0	0	—	18:01
24S. StastneyD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	0	0	0	—	17:29
9F. ForsbergL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.37	4	0	0	—	16:45
10C. SissonsC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.18	1	0	2	50	16:23
2L. SchennD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.02	2	3	0	—	15:52
13Y. TreninC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.02	3	2	0	100	15:15
75J. ParssinenC	0	0	0	0	2	0.23	0	0	0	86	15:14
36C. SmithR	0	1	1	+1	1	0.03	7	0	0	—	15:10
47M. McCarronC	0	0	0	0	0	0.18	0	1	0	63	14:11
44K. SherwoodL	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	4	0	0	33	13:43
17M. JankowskiL	0	0	0	0	4	0.38	0	1	0	25	12:35
77L. EvangelistaR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	11:59
26P. TomasinoR	0	0	0	0	0	0.18	0	1	0	—	11:33

Nashville Predators goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
74J. Saros(W)	35	34	1	.971	3.08	+2.08	60:00

Season series

NSH leads 2-0

Dec 32@1this game
Mar 72@4Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Nashville Predators at Buffalo Sabres

1st period

2nd period

1st

2nd

Box score