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Lightning at Avalanche
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
1
Colorado Avalanche
▸4
FinalTV ALT, BSSUN·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Johansen's goal at 1:48 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 69% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.3 to 3.7; shots on goal were TBL 39, COL 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 19 of 22 (.864); Alexandar Georgiev stopped 38 of 39 (.974), 2.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan Johansen (2 G), 2. Alexandar Georgiev (38 saves, .974), 3. Cale Makar (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    R. Johansen2 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    A. Georgiev38 saves, .974
  3. ★★★
    COL
    C. Makar1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL014113012139
COLCOL182817423

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    R. Johansen(8)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.14win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    7:12

2nd period

  1. COL
    R. Johansen(9)
    T. Tatar (8), C. Makar (26)
    snapxG 0.38win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    1:48
  2. COL
    C. Makar(6)PPG
    M. Rantanen (15), N. MacKinnon (20)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +8 ptsVideo
    0-3
    3:35
  3. TBL
    A. Cirelli(3)
    V. Hedman (19), N. Kucherov (21)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +6 ptsVideo
    1-3
    19:29

3rd period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(10)EN
    N. MacKinnon (21)
    wristxG 0.57win prob +1 ptsVideo
    1-4
    16:46

Penalties

TBL 40 PIM·COL 26 PIM

1st

  • 10:43COLBowen Byram · Slashingdrawn by Tanner Jeannot2 min
  • 15:25COLCale Makar · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 2:07TBLCalvin de Haan · Trippingdrawn by Tomas Tatar2 min
  • 8:32TBLBrandon Hagel · Holdingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 12:10TBLMichael Eyssimont · Cross checkingdrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min
  • 13:21TBLTyler Motte · Trippingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 15:31COLBowen Byram · Hookingdrawn by Tyler Motte2 min

3rd

  • 10:32TBLTyler Motte · Holdingdrawn by Ryan Johansen2 min
  • 18:30COLMiles Wood · Misconductdrawn by Brandon Hagel10 min
  • 18:30TBLBrandon Hagel · Misconductdrawn by Miles Wood10 min
  • 18:30TBLMichael Eyssimont · Misconduct10 min
  • 18:30TBLTanner Jeannot · Misconductdrawn by Jack Johnson10 min
  • 18:30COLJack Johnson · Misconductdrawn by Tanner Jeannot10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalTBL goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Ryan Johansen, 2nd 1:48 — COL 69% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Nichushkin · Goal · xG 0.57F. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.53V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.44R. Johansen · Goal · xG 0.38J. Kiviranta · Missed · xG 0.17M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.16T. Tatar · On goal · xG 0.15V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.15R. Johansen · Goal · xG 0.14D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.13V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.12M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.12R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.10V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.10J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.10R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.09N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.08V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.07C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.06M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.05M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.04M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.04B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.03R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.02R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.02M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.02J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jones · On goal · xG 0.02A. Cogliano · Missed · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Jones · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.01T. Tatar · Missed · xG 0.01J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01F. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.00
COL4 G · 4.3 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsCOL
3.71 G
All situations
3 G4.3
2.21 G
Even strength
2 G2.3
1.20 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL59%41%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.62 – 3.07

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsCOL
39
Shots on goal
23
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/3
Power play
1/5
40
Penalty minutes
26
14
Hits
21
12
Blocked shots
18
5
Giveaways
9
4
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD011-130.12010—24:11
98M. SergachevD000-100.01210—22:11
81E. CernakD000000.02220—20:42
86N. KucherovR011-160.83000—19:41
71A. CirelliC101+140.330104019:36
21B. PointC000-130.330103319:35
20N. PaulL000-260.600105919:12
38B. HagelL000-220.160012—18:57
48N. PerbixD000010.02000—16:01
91S. StamkosC000-110.200006015:57
44C. de HaanD000000.02122—15:02
43D. RaddyshD000-110.00000—14:51
23M. EyssimontC000060.280012014:06
64T. MotteC000-110.12104012:39
84T. JeannotL000-110.0122105011:58
11L. GlendeningC000000.051005011:39
45C. KoepkeL000040.61210—09:30
51A. WatsonL000000.00300—06:12
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)22193.8643.16+0.1658:32

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).