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Sabres at Capitals
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
3
Washington Capitals
▸4
Final/OTTV MSG-B, MNMT·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-3 in overtime, Dylan Strome scoring at 4:52. The Capitals came back from two goals down. The Sabres led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Strome's goal at 4:52 of overtime, which took the Capitals' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.1 to 2.7; shots on goal were BUF 27, WSH 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Devon Levi stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.4 goals below expected; Darcy Kuemper stopped 24 of 27 (.889). Three stars: 1. Dylan Strome (1 G, 1 A), 2. Tom Wilson (1 G), 3. Dylan Cozens (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WSH
    D. Strome1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    WSH
    T. Wilson1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    D. Cozens1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF2101110402327
WSHWSH1101121513430

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Peterka(8)
    T. Jost (2), V. Olofsson (2)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    10:09
  2. BUF
    Z. Benson(1)
    V. Olofsson (3)
    between-legsxG 0.10win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-0
    16:04
  3. WSH
    A. Alexeyev(1)
    N. Dowd (1), T. van Riemsdyk (3)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    17:01

2nd period

  1. WSH
    T. Oshie(1)
    C. McMichael (4)
    backhandxG 0.23win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-2
    7:50
  2. BUF
    D. Cozens(4)PPG
    R. Dahlin (12), C. Mittelstadt (12)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +21 pts
    3-2
    16:18

3rd period

  1. WSH
    T. Wilson(4)
    D. Strome (2), J. Carlson (9)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +44 ptsVideo
    3-3
    18:45

Overtime

  1. WSH
    D. Strome(8)
    J. Carlson (10)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-4
    4:52

Penalties

BUF 9 PIM·WSH 11 PIM

1st

  • 18:05BUFJordan Greenway · Roughingdrawn by Tom Wilson2 min
  • 18:05WSHTom Wilson · Fightingdrawn by Jordan Greenway5 min
  • 18:05BUFJordan Greenway · Fightingdrawn by Tom Wilson5 min

2nd

  • 14:05WSHNick Jensen · Holdingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min
  • 14:47WSHConnor McMichael · Hookingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 17:15BUFserved by V. Olofsson · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 9:29WSHConnor McMichael · Slashingdrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WSH goalBUF goalFinal: WSH 100%

Biggest swing: Dylan Strome, OT 4:52 — WSH 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.24T. Oshie · Goal · xG 0.23T. Wilson · Goal · xG 0.20T. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.14J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.14D. Strome · Goal · xG 0.13A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.10A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.09C. McMichael · Missed · xG 0.09A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.09J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.08C. McMichael · On goal · xG 0.08T. Oshie · Missed · xG 0.07A. Protas · On goal · xG 0.07B. Malenstyn · Missed · xG 0.07N. Dowd · On goal · xG 0.07R. Sandin · On goal · xG 0.07T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.07J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.07R. Sandin · On goal · xG 0.07A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.05S. Milano · On goal · xG 0.05J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.05C. McMichael · Missed · xG 0.04A. Protas · On goal · xG 0.04T. Oshie · Missed · xG 0.03A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.03A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.02N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.02A. Alexeyev · On goal · xG 0.01H. Lapierre · On goal · xG 0.01J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Sandin · Missed · xG 0.01B. Malenstyn · Missed · xG 0.01T. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.01A. Alexeyev · Goal · xG 0.01A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.01
WSH4 G · 2.7 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsWSH
3.13 G
All situations
4 G2.7
2.02 G
Even strength
4 G2.1
1.11 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF58%42%WSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.08 – 2.63

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsWSH
27
Shots on goal
30
53%
Faceoffs
47%
1/3
Power play
0/2
9
Penalty minutes
11
13
Hits
22
12
Blocked shots
20
4
Giveaways
12
12
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD011-240.56130—27:21
89A. TuchR000-140.52040—24:56
25O. PowerD000-200.08020—23:53
37C. MittelstadtC011-110.180005023:21
24D. CozensC101-130.320105021:12
77J. PeterkaR101020.12000—20:59
23M. SamuelssonD000-230.06000—19:51
53J. SkinnerL000030.55100—18:31
9Z. BensonL101020.27100—17:21
12J. GreenwayL000-100.15307—16:38
28Z. GirgensonsC000-120.0200010014:07
75C. CliftonD000+200.00300—13:59
21K. OkposoR000-110.080008313:06
10H. JokiharjuD000-100.00220—12:59
6E. JohnsonD000+200.01200—12:28
17T. JostC011000.000002910:18
33R. JohnsonD000010.03000—10:15
71V. OlofssonL022+110.13000—09:49
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
27D. Levi(O)30264.8672.65-1.3564:34

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).