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Hurricanes at Islanders
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
New York Islanders
3
Final/OTTV BSSO, MSGSN·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the New York Islanders 4-3 in overtime, Sebastian Aho scoring at 1:14. The Hurricanes came back from three goals down. The Islanders led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sebastian Aho's goal at 1:14 of overtime, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 2.8 to 2.2; shots on goal were CAR 46, NYI 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Antti Raanta stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 0.8 goals below expected; Ilya Sorokin stopped 42 of 46 (.913), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1 G, 1 A), 2. Sebastian Aho (1 G), 3. Mathew Barzal (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    J. Kotkaniemi1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CAR
    S. Aho1 G
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    M. Barzal1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
CARCAR01311321911446
NYINYI111280501325

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    N. Dobson(3)
    M. Barzal (6), B. Horvat (4)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    17:40

2nd period

  1. NYI
    S. Holmstrom(3)SHG
    J. Pageau (4)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-2
    4:11
  2. NYI
    M. Barzal(2)
    B. Horvat (5), R. Pulock (2)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-3
    7:46
  3. CAR
    J. Chatfield(1)
    J. Martinook (2), J. Staal (4)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +8 ptsVideo
    1-3
    8:18

3rd period

  1. CAR
    D. Orlov(1)
    J. Kotkaniemi (7), A. Svechnikov (2)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +11 ptsVideo
    2-3
    12:19
  2. CAR
    J. Kotkaniemi(5)PPG
    A. Svechnikov (3)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +36 ptsVideo
    3-3
    15:26

Overtime

  1. CAR
    S. Aho(2)
    M. Necas (6), B. Skjei (7)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +51 ptsVideo
    4-3
    1:14

Penalties

CAR 4 PIM·NYI 8 PIM

1st

  • 4:34CARJordan Staal · Hookingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
  • 5:22NYIMathew Barzal · Hookingdrawn by Brady Skjei2 min
  • 16:31CARBrent Burns · Roughingdrawn by Brock Nelson2 min
  • 16:31NYIBrock Nelson · Interferencedrawn by Brent Burns2 min

2nd

  • 2:59NYIMathew Barzal · High stickingdrawn by Tony DeAngelo2 min

3rd

  • 13:26NYIScott Mayfield · Hookingdrawn by Jesper Fast2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalCAR goalFinal: NYI 0%

Biggest swing: Sebastian Aho, OT 1:14 — CAR 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Dobson · Goal · xG 0.18B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.17S. Holmstrom · Goal · xG 0.17A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.16B. Horvat · Missed · xG 0.16K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.14M. Barzal · Goal · xG 0.14M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.14B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.13N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.12B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.12K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.11M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.07S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.05B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.05N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.04B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.03N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.03B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.03N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.02K. Palmieri · Missed · xG 0.02M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.02H. Fasching · Missed · xG 0.02S. Holmstrom · On goal · xG 0.02M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.01R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.01R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.01A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.00N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI3 G · 2.2 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsNYI
2.84 G
All situations
3 G2.2
2.13 G
Even strength
2 G2.0
0.61 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 103 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR59%41%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.76 – 2.24

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsNYI
46
Shots on goal
25
53%
Faceoffs
47%
1/3
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
8
22
Hits
21
7
Blocked shots
28
5
Giveaways
15
7
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
74J. SlavinD000-170.20020—24:09
76B. SkjeiD011+240.10010—23:44
8B. BurnsD000-160.22102—21:47
20S. AhoC101060.440205520:53
24S. JarvisR000020.234103619:59
86T. TeravainenC000-130.17100018:46
7D. OrlovD101+120.04100—18:20
11J. StaalC011+120.233025617:32
37A. SvechnikovR022020.11200—16:13
48J. MartinookL011+130.0800010016:05
71J. FastR000+110.08200—15:31
5J. ChatfieldD101020.03010—15:16
77T. DeAngeloD000-110.06000—14:28
88M. NecasC011010.073007514:23
82J. KotkaniemiC112-120.280004013:07
23S. NoesenR000-120.37200—12:45
18J. DruryC000-100.011006708:44
28B. LemieuxL000000.07200—08:04
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32A. Raanta(W)25223.8802.24-0.7661:10

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).