Skip to content
Lightning at Senators
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
Ottawa Senators
▸7
FinalTV BSSUN, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 7-2. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Derick Brassard's goal at 18:04 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 75% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 4.1 to 2.5; shots on goal were TBL 29, OTT 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Brian Elliott stopped 28 of 34 (.824), 2.9 goals below expected; Mads Sogaard stopped 27 of 29 (.931). Three stars: 1. Alex DeBrincat (2 G, 1 A), 2. Brady Tkachuk (2 G), 3. Erik Brannstrom (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    A. DeBrincat2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk2 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    E. Brannstrom1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL01011514229
OTTOTT21318414735

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    A. DeBrincat(22)
    D. Batherson (35), S. Pinto (13)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    8:53
  2. OTT
    A. DeBrincat(23)
    E. Brannstrom (11), T. Hamonic (13)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    11:37

2nd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(45)
    N. Kucherov (73), S. Stamkos (43)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    10:28
  2. OTT
    D. Brassard(12)PPG
    C. Giroux (41), J. Chychrun (24)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    18:04

3rd period

  1. TBL
    M. Sergachev(8)PPG
    S. Stamkos (44), N. Kucherov (74)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
    2-3
    4:10
  2. OTT
    E. Brannstrom(2)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    5:45
  3. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(31)PPG
    A. DeBrincat (36), T. Chabot (29)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +2 pts
    2-5
    13:11
  4. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(32)EN
    T. Stützle (44), C. Giroux (42)
    snapxG 0.93
    2-6
    13:35
  5. OTT
    A. Watson(8)
    P. Brown (7)
    backhandxG 0.13
    2-7
    14:39

Penalties

TBL 18 PIM·OTT 10 PIM

1st

  • 14:26OTTErik Brannstrom · Holdingdrawn by Tanner Jeannot2 min

2nd

  • 4:29OTTClaude Giroux · Trippingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 7:59TBLNick Perbix · Trippingdrawn by Drake Batherson2 min
  • 15:32TBLPatrick Maroon · Misconduct10 min
  • 16:09TBLTanner Jeannot · Trippingdrawn by Travis Hamonic2 min

3rd

  • 3:35OTTTim Stützle · Roughingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 9:24OTTTravis Hamonic · Hookingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 11:26TBLBrandon Hagel · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Mads Sogaard2 min
  • 11:26OTTTravis Hamonic · Roughingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min
  • 11:26TBLCorey Perry · Roughingdrawn by Shane Pinto2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTBL goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Derick Brassard, 2nd 18:04 — OTT 75% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.93R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.25A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.14A. Watson · Goal · xG 0.13D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.13S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.12A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.12S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.12D. Brassard · Goal · xG 0.11D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.11D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.11B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.10A. DeBrincat · Goal · xG 0.10A. DeBrincat · Goal · xG 0.09R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.09C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.09B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.08C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.07E. Brannstrom · Goal · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.07T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.06A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.06D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.05A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.05C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.05B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.05D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.05S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.05D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.04D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.03T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.03C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.03T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.03T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.03R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.03T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02P. Brown · Missed · xG 0.02J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.02A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.02P. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01P. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01D. Gambrell · On goal · xG 0.01P. Brown · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.00T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT7 G · 4.1 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsOTT
2.52 G
All situations
6 G4.1
2.01 G
Even strength
4 G2.2
0.21 G
Power play
2 G0.9
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL39%61%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.48 – 3.11

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsOTT
29
Shots on goal
35
53%
Faceoffs
47%
1/4
Power play
2/3
18
Penalty minutes
10
27
Hits
19
9
Blocked shots
22
10
Giveaways
14
8
Takeaways
15

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
98M. SergachevD101-120.11100—22:35
77V. HedmanD000-120.21000—21:16
21B. PointC101-120.300105819:49
86N. KucherovR022-110.20100—19:47
48N. PerbixD000-130.05402—19:15
28I. ColeD000-250.16030—18:58
38B. HagelL000-130.33002—18:26
81E. CernakD000030.34120—18:11
20N. PaulL000-110.011007517:04
17A. KillornL000-100.11000—16:53
91S. StamkosC022-100.051104316:51
71A. CirelliC000-320.161003615:45
24Z. BogosianD000-200.00110—13:34
79R. ColtonC000-120.0441010012:41
84T. JeannotL000-100.006023311:41
10C. PerryR000-210.17102—11:36
23M. EyssimontC000010.083006710:12
14P. MaroonL000-110.182010—10:03
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1B. Elliott(L)34286.8243.14-2.8659:43

Season series

OTT leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).