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Avalanche at Senators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Ottawa Senators
4
FinalTV ALT, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Ottawa Senators 5-4. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Evan Rodrigues's goal at 15:17 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 69% to 86%. Expected goals were close — COL 3.5, OTT 3.6; shots on goal were COL 30, OTT 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Jonas Johansson stopped 32 of 36 (.889); Mads Sogaard stopped 25 of 30 (.833), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 2 A), 2. Tim Stützle (3 A), 3. Nathan MacKinnon (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    T. Stützle3 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL21031406530
OTTOTT112110214436

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(16)
    M. Rantanen (36), N. MacKinnon (54)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:35
  2. COL
    V. Nichushkin(14)PPG
    C. Makar (42), M. Rantanen (37)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
    2-0
    5:00
  3. OTT
    D. Batherson(20)PPG
    T. Stützle (40), J. Sanderson (23)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    19:33

2nd period

  1. COL
    M. Rantanen(45)
    N. MacKinnon (55), B. Byram (10)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    4:23
  2. OTT
    S. Pinto(18)
    J. Gauthier (5), E. Brannstrom (9)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    8:20
  3. COL
    E. Rodrigues(14)
    N. MacKinnon (56)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +17 pts
    4-2
    15:17
  4. COL
    L. Eller(8)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.35win prob +8 pts
    5-2
    18:09

3rd period

  1. OTT
    T. Hamonic(6)
    T. Stützle (41), B. Tkachuk (41)
    wristxG 0.30win prob +7 pts
    5-3
    2:52
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(28)PPG
    T. Stützle (42), J. Sanderson (24)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +9 pts
    5-4
    13:18

Penalties

COL 14 PIM·OTT 10 PIM

1st

  • 3:49OTTTravis Hamonic · Holdingdrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min
  • 5:44COLJack Johnson · Holdingdrawn by Julien Gauthier2 min
  • 9:01OTTRidly Greig · Cross checkingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 12:03COLNathan MacKinnon · Holdingdrawn by Austin Watson2 min
  • 18:26COLAlex Newhook · Interferencedrawn by Erik Brannstrom2 min

2nd

  • 18:09OTTserved by B. Tkachuk · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min

3rd

  • 12:45COLMikko Rantanen · Holdingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min
  • 14:06COLBowen Byram · Cross checkingdrawn by Claude Giroux2 min
  • 14:06OTTClaude Giroux · Embellishment2 min
  • 18:36OTTBrady Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min
  • 18:36COLNathan MacKinnon · Roughingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 19:19COLDevon Toews · Trippingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalCOL goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Evan Rodrigues, 2nd 15:17 — COL 69% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Hamonic · Goal · xG 0.31S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.21T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.20J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.19B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.18D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.15J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.13T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.13A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.12A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.12B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.12T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.12J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.11D. Batherson · Goal · xG 0.11B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.10J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.09B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.09S. Pinto · Goal · xG 0.08D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.08D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.07T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.07R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.06A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.05A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.05R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.05T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.05B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.04T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.04J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.04J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.04A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.03C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.03A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.03J. Chychrun · Missed · xG 0.03A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.03R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.03J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.03R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.02P. Brown · Missed · xG 0.02C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.02T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.02D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.02T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.01
OTT4 G · 3.6 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsOTT
3.55 G
All situations
4 G3.6
2.84 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.51 G
Power play
2 G1.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL48%52%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.30 – 3.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsOTT
30
Shots on goal
36
46%
Faceoffs
54%
1/3
Power play
2/5
14
Penalty minutes
10
15
Hits
28
18
Blocked shots
15
6
Giveaways
15
7
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD112+210.03110—27:03
7D. ToewsD000+220.04232—23:54
37J. CompherL000000.001105022:58
29N. MacKinnonC033+360.441242921:30
4B. ByramD011-140.52202—21:20
49S. GirardD000000.07020—21:16
96M. RantanenR123+340.51112—20:50
13V. NichushkinR101020.30110—20:49
25L. O'ConnorR000+110.18120—15:39
9E. RodriguesC101+340.30230015:22
3J. JohnsonD000+110.23112—14:45
11A. CoglianoC000+110.211006713:58
20L. EllerC101+110.430005313:33
81D. MalginC000000.00010011:41
17B. HuntD000010.02000—08:50
83M. NietoL000-220.21100—06:58
18A. NewhookC000-200.020026705:41
47A. GalchenyukC000-200.00000004:08
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31J. Johansson(W)36324.8893.57-0.4360:00

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).