Predators at Panthers 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Nashville Predators

▸2

Florida Panthers

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Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Florida Panthers 2-1. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Leonard's goal at 19:49 of the first period, which took the Predators' chances from 62% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 3.7 to 2.6; shots on goal were NSH 23, FLA 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 73% of the time. Kevin Lankinen stopped 30 of 31 (.968), 2.7 goals saved above expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 21 of 23 (.913). Three stars: 1. Kevin Lankinen (30 saves, .968), 2. Roman Josi (2 A), 3. Brandon Montour (1 G).

Three stars

★
K. Lankinen30 saves, .968
★★
R. Josi2 A
★★★
B. Montour1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	212	07	04	223
FLA	07	116	08	131

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

M. Duchene(19)PPG
L. Evangelista (1), R. Josi (38)
wristxG 0.05win prob +10 pts
1-0
13:40
J. Leonard(1)
R. Josi (39), C. Glass (16)
backhandxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
2-0
19:49

2nd period

B. Montour(11)
R. Lomberg (7), R. Gudas (9)
slapxG 0.22win prob +16 pts
2-1
3:21

Penalties

0 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

13:33Radko Gudas · Trippingdrawn by Luke Evangelista2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: FLA

Biggest swing: John Leonard, 1st 19:49 — NSH 62% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 3.7 xG · 54 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.6 xG · 31 att FLA

1 G · 3.7 xG · 54 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.62 G
All situations: 1 G3.7; 2.21 G
Even strength: 1 G3.6; 0.11 G
Power play: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

27%73%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.18 – 3.62

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

23
Shots on goal: 31; 57%
Faceoffs: 43%; 1/1
Power play: 0/0; 0
Penalty minutes: 2; 33
Hits: 18; 28
Blocked shots: 10; 10
Giveaways: 9; 7
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Nashville Predators skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	FO%	TOI
59R. JosiD	0	2	2	0	3	0.11	3	1	—	28:11
27R. McDonaghD	0	0	0	0	0	0.03	3	6	—	25:09
22T. BarrieD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	0	1	—	21:58
13Y. TreninC	0	0	0	0	4	0.86	1	0	0	19:44
3J. LauzonD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	3	1	—	19:03
57D. FabbroD	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	1	3	—	18:42
36C. SmithR	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	5	1	—	17:55
95M. DucheneC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.13	1	2	50	17:03
10C. SissonsC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	46	16:26
8C. GlassC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.04	0	3	60	16:25
43J. LeonardL	1	0	1	+1	1	0.06	1	1	—	14:37
17M. JankowskiL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	1	2	53	14:10
12Z. SanfordL	0	0	0	-1	3	0.30	1	4	—	13:26
77L. EvangelistaR	0	1	1	0	0	0.08	0	0	—	12:53
82T. NovakC	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	1	0	80	12:42
26P. TomasinoR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.27	0	0	—	12:19
44K. SherwoodL	0	0	0	0	1	0.51	8	1	—	12:03
45A. CarrierD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.05	1	2	—	07:14

Nashville Predators goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
32K. Lankinen(W)	31	30	1	.968	3.67	+2.67	60:00

Season series

NSH leads 2-0

Feb 183@7Final
Mar 22@1this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Nashville Predators at Florida Panthers

1st period

2nd period

1st

Box score