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Maple Leafs at Sabres
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸6
Buffalo Sabres
3
FinalTV TSN4·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Buffalo Sabres 6-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 5-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan O'Reilly's goal at 4:28 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 58% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.0 to 2.4; shots on goal were TOR 29, BUF 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Ilya Samsonov stopped 29 of 32 (.906), 0.6 goals below expected; Craig Anderson stopped 17 of 18 (.944), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan O'Reilly (3 G, 1 A), 2. Mitch Marner (5 A), 3. John Tavares (1 G, 3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    R. O'Reilly3 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner5 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR4151816629
BUFBUF08011313332

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    R. O'Reilly(13)
    M. Marner (47), J. Tavares (32)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:51
  2. TOR
    R. O'Reilly(14)
    M. Marner (48), J. Tavares (33)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    4:28
  3. TOR
    J. Tavares(26)
    R. O'Reilly (9), M. Marner (49)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +11 pts
    3-0
    7:14
  4. TOR
    M. Bunting(19)
    M. Rielly (27), W. Nylander (36)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +7 pts
    4-0
    12:09

2nd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(32)PPG
    J. Tavares (34), M. Marner (50)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +1 pts
    5-0
    14:36

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Quinn(9)
    C. Mittelstadt (25)
    wristxG 0.07
    5-1
    5:12
  2. BUF
    A. Tuch(27)
    T. Thompson (36), H. Jokiharju (8)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +1 pts
    5-2
    8:01
  3. BUF
    J. Skinner(22)
    R. Dahlin (46), A. Tuch (34)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +1 pts
    5-3
    16:29
  4. TOR
    R. O'Reilly(15)EN
    M. Marner (51)
    backhandxG 0.68win prob +1 pts
    6-3
    18:50

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·BUF 6 PIM

2nd

  • 14:11BUFJacob Bryson · Trippingdrawn by TJ Brodie2 min

3rd

  • 1:59TORConor Timmins · Cross checkingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 13:51BUFHenri Jokiharju · Hookingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
  • 15:25TORMichael Bunting · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 15:25BUFTyson Jost · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalTOR goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Ryan O'Reilly, 1st 4:28 — TOR 58% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.18A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.18K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.17H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.16T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.12M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.12D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.12R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.10J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.09J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.09I. Lyubushkin · On goal · xG 0.09Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.09T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.08J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.08J. Quinn · Goal · xG 0.07J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.07D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.07T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.06V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.05A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.05A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.04D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.04C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.03D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.03J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.03H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.03H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.02O. Power · On goal · xG 0.02J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.01K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.01
BUF3 G · 2.4 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsBUF
4.05 G
All situations
3 G2.4
2.54 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
0.91 G
Power play
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR65%35%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.29 – 2.42

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsBUF
29
Shots on goal
32
59%
Faceoffs
41%
1/2
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
6
16
Hits
17
18
Blocked shots
7
1
Giveaways
8
15
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD011+100.00000—21:34
3J. HollD000+100.00330—21:10
78T. BrodieD000030.12020—21:02
37T. LiljegrenD000+100.00120—20:32
55M. GiordanoD000+110.01020—19:53
16M. MarnerR055+400.00010—16:48
90R. O'ReillyC314+351.150005716:38
34A. MatthewsC000010.311503015:54
47P. EngvallL000-200.00000—15:53
88W. NylanderR112070.94010—15:53
64D. KampfC000-130.301007115:36
91J. TavaresC134+430.5200010015:14
25C. TimminsD000000.00002—14:51
19C. JarnkrokC000010.05100014:48
15A. KerfootC000030.45120014:20
58M. BuntingL101010.07002—13:51
52N. AcciariC000-100.007004013:19
12Z. Aston-ReeseL000-110.11100—10:44
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35I. Samsonov(W)32293.9062.43-0.5760:00

Season series

TOR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).