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Flames at Senators
NHL

Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
3
Ottawa Senators
▸4
Final/OTTV SN, RDS·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Calgary Flames 4-3 in overtime, Tim Stützle scoring at 1:55. The Senators came back from two goals down. The Flames led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tim Stützle's goal at 1:55 of overtime, which took the Senators' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 3.2 to 2.6; shots on goal were CGY 37, OTT 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Jacob Markstrom stopped 21 of 25 (.840), 1.4 goals below expected; Mads Sogaard stopped 34 of 37 (.919). Three stars: 1. Tim Stützle (1 G, 3 A), 2. Dillon Dube (2 G), 3. Mads Sogaard (34 saves, .919).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    T. Stützle1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    CGY
    D. Dube2 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    M. Sogaard34 saves, .919

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
CGYCGY1111161901337
OTTOTT150621212425

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(21)
    T. Stützle (28), T. Hamonic (6)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    6:10
  2. CGY
    D. Dube(14)PPG
    N. Hanifin (20), J. Huberdeau (26)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    14:47

2nd period

  1. CGY
    T. Toffoli(22)
    M. Weegar (15)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    5:55

3rd period

  1. CGY
    D. Dube(15)
    T. Toffoli (26), C. Tanev (10)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    6:40
  2. OTT
    D. Batherson(16)
    T. Stützle (29), S. Pinto (10)
    backhandxG 0.06win prob +5 pts
    3-2
    17:46
  3. OTT
    A. DeBrincat(18)
    T. Stützle (30), E. Brannstrom (5)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +46 pts
    3-3
    18:32

Overtime

  1. OTT
    T. Stützle(23)
    A. DeBrincat (26), B. Tkachuk (33)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +49 pts
    3-4
    1:55

Penalties

CGY 10 PIM·OTT 10 PIM

1st

  • 11:54CGYBlake Coleman · Trippingdrawn by Erik Brannstrom2 min
  • 13:16OTTDerick Brassard · Holdingdrawn by Andrew Mangiapane2 min
  • 15:16CGYBlake Coleman · Interferencedrawn by Erik Brannstrom2 min
  • 15:40OTTAlex DeBrincat · Trippingdrawn by Chris Tanev2 min
  • 18:44OTTTim Stützle · Roughingdrawn by Blake Coleman2 min
  • 18:44CGYBlake Coleman · Roughingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 19:29OTTTravis Hamonic · High stickingdrawn by Tyler Toffoli2 min

2nd

  • 3:53OTTClaude Giroux · Hookingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 8:07CGYNikita Zadorov · Cross checkingdrawn by Drake Batherson2 min
  • 10:03CGYAndrew Mangiapane · Hookingdrawn by Alex DeBrincat2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalCGY goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Tim Stützle, OT 1:55 — OTT 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Stützle · Goal · xG 0.24D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.22A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.19T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.18C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.17B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.16B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.15A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.12B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.12D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.12D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.10T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.09T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.08A. DeBrincat · Goal · xG 0.07A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.07S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.06D. Batherson · Goal · xG 0.06A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.05A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.05A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.04T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.04R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.03D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.03C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.02P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.01A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.01A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.00P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.00A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.00T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT4 G · 2.6 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsOTT
3.23 G
All situations
4 G2.6
2.42 G
Even strength
4 G1.8
0.71 G
Power play
0 G0.8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY60%40%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.18 – 2.62

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsOTT
37
Shots on goal
25
57%
Faceoffs
43%
1/4
Power play
0/4
10
Penalty minutes
10
23
Hits
37
11
Blocked shots
28
3
Giveaways
17
1
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55N. HanifinD011-120.38000—26:59
8C. TanevD011-110.04110—23:18
52M. WeegarD011-150.11220—21:46
16N. ZadorovD000-130.13232—21:29
28E. LindholmC000010.370006720:08
11M. BacklundC000+130.144005718:05
91N. KadriC000-160.420005018:03
88A. MangiapaneL000040.66002—17:38
10J. HuberdeauL011-210.19100—16:44
20B. ColemanL000000.0000610015:50
73T. ToffoliC112030.31100015:11
49J. PelletierL000-210.02010—13:38
29D. DubeC202030.33100012:43
26M. StoneD000010.01110—12:24
22T. LewisC000020.061104011:17
17M. LucicL000000.0060010010:27
48D. GilbertD000010.00110—10:21
24B. RitchieR000000.01210—10:08
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
25J. Markstrom(O)25214.8402.65-1.3561:31

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).