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Coyotes at Blues
NHL

Utah Mammoth at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Utah Mammoth
5
St. Louis Blues
▸6
Final/OTTV BSAZ, BSMW·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Utah Mammoth 6-5 in overtime, Ryan O'Reilly scoring at 1:02. The Blues came back from two goals down. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan O'Reilly's goal at 1:02 of overtime, which took the Blues' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 4.2 to 2.7; shots on goal were ARI 28, STL 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Karel Vejmelka stopped 31 of 37 (.838), 1.8 goals below expected; Jordan Binnington stopped 23 of 28 (.821), 2.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Calle Rosen (2 G), 2. Clayton Keller (2 G, 1 A), 3. Ryan O'Reilly (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    C. Rosen2 G
  2. ★★
    ARI
    C. Keller2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    STL
    R. O'Reilly1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
ARIARI210093900528
STLSTL0521731312637

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. ARI
    C. Keller(20)
    N. Schmaltz (19), J. Välimäki (13)
    backhandxG 0.26win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    0:51
  2. ARI
    N. Schmaltz(13)PPG
    C. Keller (27), J. Välimäki (14)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +13 pts
    2-0
    9:31

2nd period

  1. STL
    B. Saad(15)
    P. Buchnevich (24), C. Parayko (14)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    10:20
  2. STL
    S. Blais(1)
    N. Leddy (13), B. Schenn (25)
    backhandxG 0.24win prob +23 pts
    2-2
    17:19

3rd period

  1. STL
    R. Thomas(13)
    J. Kyrou (25), P. Buchnevich (25)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +24 pts
    2-3
    1:27
  2. STL
    C. Rosen(6)
    T. Pitlick (6), A. Toropchenko (5)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    6:44
  3. STL
    C. Rosen(7)
    B. Schenn (26), J. Kyrou (26)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +4 pts
    2-5
    8:33
  4. ARI
    C. Keller(21)
    B. Hayton (13), T. Stecher (5)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +3 pts
    3-5
    9:47
  5. ARI
    N. Bjugstad(13)PPG
    N. Schmaltz (20), J. Välimäki (15)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +8 pts
    4-5
    13:14
  6. ARI
    L. Crouse(17)
    N. Schmaltz (21), J. Välimäki (16)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +44 pts
    5-5
    19:03

Overtime

  1. STL
    R. O'Reilly(11)
    P. Buchnevich (26), C. Parayko (15)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +49 pts
    5-6
    1:02

Penalties

ARI 10 PIM·STL 8 PIM

1st

  • 8:12STLPavel Buchnevich · Trippingdrawn by Troy Stecher2 min
  • 17:53ARIBarrett Hayton · Hookingdrawn by Brandon Saad2 min

2nd

  • 6:48ARIZack Kassian · Hookingdrawn by Tyler Pitlick2 min
  • 13:12ARIDysin Mayo · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 15:09STLSammy Blais · Slashingdrawn by Nick Bjugstad2 min
  • 19:07ARIJ.J. Moser · Trippingdrawn by Sammy Blais2 min

3rd

  • 10:21STLRyan O'Reilly · Hookingdrawn by Barrett Hayton2 min
  • 13:05STLIvan Barbashev · Trippingdrawn by Juuso Välimäki2 min
  • 14:13ARIJuuso Välimäki · Holdingdrawn by Jordan Kyrou2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalARI goalFinal: STL 100%

Biggest swing: Ryan O'Reilly, OT 1:02 — STL 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
I. Barbashev · On goal · xG 0.28S. Blais · Goal · xG 0.24R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.23B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.20P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.17B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.17P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.15B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.13R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.13R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.12B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.12J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.11C. Rosen · Goal · xG 0.11I. Barbashev · On goal · xG 0.11B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.11R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.11N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.10R. Thomas · Goal · xG 0.10R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.09J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.09R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.08A. Toropchenko · On goal · xG 0.08J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.08J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.07C. Rosen · Goal · xG 0.07P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.07B. Saad · Goal · xG 0.07J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.06J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.06S. Blais · On goal · xG 0.06J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.05S. Blais · On goal · xG 0.05J. Faulk · Missed · xG 0.05P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.05N. Acciari · Missed · xG 0.05I. Barbashev · On goal · xG 0.04B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.04N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.04C. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.03J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.03C. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.03C. Rosen · Missed · xG 0.03C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.02T. Krug · On goal · xG 0.02R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.02C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.02J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.02J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.02N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.01T. Krug · On goal · xG 0.01N. Leddy · Missed · xG 0.01J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.01N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.01T. Tucker · Missed · xG 0.01
STL6 G · 4.2 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ARIvsSTL
2.75 G
All situations
6 G4.2
1.33 G
Even strength
6 G2.9
1.12 G
Power play
0 G1.3
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ARI26%74%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.63 – 4.23

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ARIvsSTL
28
Shots on goal
37
33%
Faceoffs
67%
2/4
Power play
0/5
10
Penalty minutes
8
14
Hits
22
14
Blocked shots
13
6
Giveaways
2
14
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
51T. StecherD011010.01020—25:39
4J. VälimäkiD044010.04032—21:52
2P. NemethD000010.09030—20:58
9C. KellerR213+240.37000—20:49
17N. BjugstadC101-330.230001720:31
67L. CrouseL101-160.634005020:11
29B. HaytonC011+240.521026119:19
8N. SchmaltzC134+220.24100018:36
63M. MaccelliL000-100.00020—16:46
72T. BoydC000-300.080002914:09
36C. FischerR000-230.090105014:05
12N. RitchieL000-210.20100—13:52
3J. BrownD000-310.04210—12:58
90J. MoserD000-310.16002—12:48
77V. SoderstromD000000.00010—11:52
22J. McBainC000000.00300011:01
44Z. KassianR000000.00102—09:09
61D. MayoD000000.00112—09:09
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70K. Vejmelka(O)37316.8384.24-1.7660:24

Season series

ARI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).