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Blue Jackets at Maple Leafs
NHL

Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Columbus Blue Jackets
▸4
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
FinalTV BSOH, CBC·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Columbus Blue Jackets beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3. The Blue Jackets came back from two goals down. The Blue Jackets led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kent Johnson's goal at 5:46 of the third period, which took the Blue Jackets' chances from 50% to 76%. Expected goals favored the Blue Jackets, 3.0 to 2.7; shots on goal were CBJ 40, TOR 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blue Jackets win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Elvis Merzlikins stopped 26 of 29 (.897); Joseph Woll stopped 36 of 40 (.900), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Boone Jenner (1 G, 1 A), 2. Kent Johnson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Kirill Marchenko (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CBJ
    B. Jenner1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CBJ
    K. Johnson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CBJ
    K. Marchenko1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CBJCBJ04321115440
TORTOR21101018329

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(29)
    A. Kerfoot (17), C. Jarnkrok (14)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    2:39
  2. TOR
    M. Bunting(16)
    M. Marner (44)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    10:40

2nd period

  1. CBJ
    B. Jenner(15)
    K. Marchenko (1)
    wristxG 0.34win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    4:21
  2. CBJ
    K. Marchenko(14)
    B. Jenner (13), J. Gaudreau (36)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +20 pts
    2-2
    15:01
  3. CBJ
    S. Kuraly(10)
    K. Johnson (15), M. Olivier (6)
    wristxG 0.28win prob +22 pts
    3-2
    15:58

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Rielly(2)PPG
    M. Marner (45), W. Nylander (32)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +24 pts
    3-3
    1:20
  2. CBJ
    K. Johnson(11)
    C. Sillinger (6), J. Roslovic (24)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +26 pts
    4-3
    5:46

Penalties

CBJ 4 PIM·TOR 10 PIM

1st

  • 15:55TORJustin Holl · Trippingdrawn by Andrew Peeke2 min

2nd

  • 11:40TORWilliam Nylander · Roughingdrawn by Nick Blankenburg2 min
  • 19:13CBJSean Kuraly · Roughingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 19:13TORMichael Bunting · Roughingdrawn by Sean Kuraly2 min
  • 19:46CBJJohnny Gaudreau · Trippingdrawn by Timothy Liljegren2 min

3rd

  • 3:41TORJohn Tavares · Hookingdrawn by Sean Kuraly2 min
  • 6:48TORMichael Bunting · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Mathieu Olivier2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalCBJ goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Kent Johnson, 3rd 5:46 — CBJ 50% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.21C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.19M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.16M. Rielly · Goal · xG 0.16W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.15M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.13M. Bunting · Goal · xG 0.13J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.11W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.11A. Steeves · Missed · xG 0.10W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.09D. Kampf · Missed · xG 0.08W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.08M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.08P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.08C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.08J. Anderson · Missed · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.06W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.06W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.05A. Steeves · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.05A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.05P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.04D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.04T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.04W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.03M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.03M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.02A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.02J. Anderson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.01R. Sandin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.01M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.01P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.01
TOR3 G · 2.7 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CBJvsTOR
3.04 G
All situations
3 G2.7
2.14 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.90 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CBJ55%45%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.97 – 2.71

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CBJvsTOR
40
Shots on goal
29
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/4
Power play
1/1
4
Penalty minutes
10
40
Hits
21
18
Blocked shots
19
8
Giveaways
19
6
Takeaways
14

Box score

every player line
Columbus Blue Jackets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
38B. JennerC112+290.965205823:49
13J. GaudreauL011+230.10002—22:35
2A. PeekeD000010.02880—22:35
4V. GavrikovD000000.00210—21:54
44E. GudbransonD000+200.00120—21:49
86K. MarchenkoR112+220.29000—18:44
77N. BlankenburgD000020.14310—17:35
29P. LaineL000-110.21300—17:00
24M. OlivierR011+140.22120—16:24
7S. KuralyC101+130.337025715:59
27A. BoqvistD000040.18200—14:52
50E. RobinsonL000010.1040010014:50
34C. SillingerC011020.070104213:57
75T. BerniD000+210.07200—13:40
91K. JohnsonC112+150.22010013:19
96J. RoslovicC011000.00000010:11
52E. BemstromC000-120.10100009:11
19L. FoudyC000-100.01100008:02
Columbus Blue Jackets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
90E. Merzlikins(W)29263.8972.73-0.2760:00

Season series

TOR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).