Skip to content
Islanders at Maple Leafs
NHL

New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
2
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
FinalTV MSGSN, SN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the New York Islanders 5-2. The Islanders scored first; the Maple Leafs answered. The Maple Leafs led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Calle Jarnkrok's goal at 9:33 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 53% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 5.1 to 3.9; shots on goal were NYI 33, TOR 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 34 of 39 (.872); Ilya Samsonov stopped 31 of 33 (.939), 1.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. William Nylander (2 G, 2 A), 2. John Tavares (1 G, 1 A), 3. Justin Holl (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    W. Nylander2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Holl2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI113110010233
TORTOR06422111539

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    A. Lee(16)
    B. Nelson (25), S. Aho (7)
    wristxG 0.34win prob +16 pts
    1-0
    19:37

2nd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(25)
    J. Tavares (26), M. Giordano (14)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    5:07
  2. NYI
    A. Lee(17)
    K. Palmieri (4), M. Barzal (31)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +18 pts
    2-1
    6:18
  3. TOR
    J. Tavares(21)PPG
    W. Nylander (29), I. Samsonov (1)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    2-2
    7:53
  4. TOR
    C. Jarnkrok(11)
    W. Nylander (30), J. Holl (6)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +18 pts
    2-3
    9:33
  5. TOR
    W. Nylander(26)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.17win prob +16 pts
    2-4
    16:32

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(25)
    J. Holl (7)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +4 pts
    2-5
    7:44

Penalties

NYI 6 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 17:17NYIAdam Pelech · Trippingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min

2nd

  • 6:41NYIKyle Palmieri · Interferencedrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min
  • 15:24NYIAlexander Romanov · Ps holding on breakawaydrawn by Michael Bunting0 min
  • 19:28TORJustin Holl · Hookingdrawn by Brock Nelson2 min

3rd

  • 13:27TORTimothy Liljegren · Roughingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
  • 13:27NYICasey Cizikas · Roughingdrawn by Timothy Liljegren2 min
  • 19:23TORPierre Engvall · Trippingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalNYI goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Calle Jarnkrok, 2nd 9:33 — TOR 53% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.29J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.25A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.23M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.23J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.20J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.20W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.17B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.16P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.16M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.16M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.15W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.15C. Jarnkrok · Goal · xG 0.15D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.14J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.13B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.12J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.12D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.12J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.12B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.11A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.11J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.11C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.10A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.08J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.08M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.07M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.06P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.06C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.05W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.05W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.05B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.04M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.04D. Kampf · Missed · xG 0.03M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.03C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.03M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.02W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.02R. Sandin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.02A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Aston-Reese · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.01J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.01J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR5 G · 5.1 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsTOR
3.92 G
All situations
5 G5.1
3.62 G
Even strength
4 G3.6
0.30 G
Power play
1 G1.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 105 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI34%66%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.79 – 4.97

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsTOR
33
Shots on goal
39
55%
Faceoffs
45%
0/2
Power play
1/2
6
Penalty minutes
6
49
Hits
30
13
Blocked shots
25
8
Giveaways
12
10
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
24S. MayfieldD000-120.05240—24:15
28A. RomanovD000030.50530—22:23
6R. PulockD000-120.02510—21:48
13M. BarzalC011-120.200104319:55
44J. PageauC000-110.304005817:59
25S. AhoD011+100.03000—17:33
3A. PelechD000-310.03212—16:55
21K. PalmieriC011030.45702016:40
11Z. PariseL000-120.05210—16:20
18A. BeauvillierR000-140.24000—16:17
27A. LeeL202+141.17000—16:04
29B. NelsonC011020.442006015:35
4S. BolducD000010.03310—14:28
12J. BaileyR000-110.11100—14:24
53C. CizikasC000-210.233025714:18
17M. MartinL000020.011000—11:10
16A. RätyC000010.032106709:47
10S. HolmstromR000010.06100—08:57
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin(L)39345.8725.10+0.1060:00

Season series

NYI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).