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Jets at Maple Leafs
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
1
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
FinalTV TSN3, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Winnipeg Jets 4-1. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Auston Matthews's goal at 0:08 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 4.6 to 2.6; shots on goal were WPG 38, TOR 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 83% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 0.9 goals below expected; Ilya Samsonov stopped 37 of 38 (.974), 3.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (2 G), 2. Ilya Samsonov (37 saves, .974), 3. Michael Bunting (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Matthews2 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    I. Samsonov37 saves, .974
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Bunting2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG016010112138
TORTOR06310111427

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(23)
    M. Bunting (18), M. Rielly (21)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    0:08
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(24)
    M. Bunting (19), W. Nylander (27)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    3:47
  3. TOR
    M. Marner(17)SHG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.12win prob +10 pts
    0-3
    13:49

3rd period

  1. WPG
    K. Connor(23)PPG
    J. Morrissey (42), M. Scheifele (14)
    slapxG 0.23win prob +5 pts
    1-3
    4:00
  2. TOR
    M. Giordano(2)EN
    P. Engvall (8), A. Kerfoot (14)
    wristxG 0.51win prob +1 pts
    1-4
    17:33

Penalties

WPG 2 PIM·TOR 8 PIM

1st

  • 10:14TORTimothy Liljegren · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 15:40WPGPierre-Luc Dubois · Hookingdrawn by Bobby McMann2 min

2nd

  • 13:26TORRasmus Sandin · Trippingdrawn by Pierre-Luc Dubois2 min

3rd

  • 2:12TORserved by D. Hunt · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 3:00TORMark Giordano · Trippingdrawn by Pierre-Luc Dubois2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalWPG goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Auston Matthews, 2nd 0:08 — TOR 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Giordano · Goal · xG 0.51A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.21A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.16P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.13M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.12W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.10A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.10B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.10A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.09D. Hunt · Missed · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.06C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.05B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.05W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.04B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.04P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.04A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.04D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Aston-Reese · Missed · xG 0.03B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.03M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.02B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 2.6 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsTOR
4.61 G
All situations
3 G2.6
2.50 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
2.11 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG83%17%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.32 – 2.06

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsTOR
38
Shots on goal
27
59%
Faceoffs
41%
1/4
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
8
26
Hits
24
5
Blocked shots
16
8
Giveaways
7
7
Takeaways
14

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44J. MorrisseyD011-350.12020—25:51
4N. PionkD000-160.19200—21:37
80P. DuboisC000-351.683026321:07
81K. ConnorL101-360.82100—21:00
55M. ScheifeleC011-340.451006420:12
2D. DeMeloD000000.10000—19:55
5B. DillonD000-110.06310—18:55
88N. SchmidtD000000.00100—18:39
26B. WheelerR000-200.1500010017:37
27N. EhlersL000-340.74300—17:37
17A. LowryC000000.003104314:45
36M. BarronC000-120.18200014:06
91C. PerfettiC000010.02100014:06
89S. GagnerC000010.01100012:53
28K. StenlundC000010.041007011:22
8S. MaenalanenR000000.00110—10:16
14V. HeinolaD000-100.00200—10:00
71A. Jonsson-FjallbyL000020.04100—08:40
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(L)26233.8852.07-0.9359:22

Season series

TOR leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).