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Panthers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
4
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Final/OTTV BSFL, TVAS·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Florida Panthers 5-4 in overtime, William Nylander scoring at 1:53. The Maple Leafs came back from two goals down. The Panthers led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was William Nylander's goal at 1:53 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.3 to 2.2; shots on goal were FLA 19, TOR 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 81% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 32 of 37 (.865), 0.8 goals below expected; Ilya Samsonov stopped 11 of 11 (1.000), 1.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. William Nylander (2 G, 1 A), 2. Mitch Marner (2 A), 3. Ilya Samsonov (11 saves, 1.000).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    W. Nylander2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner2 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    I. Samsonov11 saves, 1.000

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
FLAFLA37180400419
TORTOR2141131911537

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    C. Verhaeghe(21)
    A. Ekblad (13)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    1:52
  2. TOR
    D. Hunt(3)
    M. Rielly (20), Z. Aston-Reese (2)
    tip-inxG 0.35win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    2:38
  3. FLA
    A. Lundell(6)SHG
    A. Barkov (25)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    12:34
  4. TOR
    A. Kerfoot(7)PPG
    C. Jarnkrok (12), T. Liljegren (8)
    backhandxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    2-2
    15:10
  5. FLA
    J. Mahura(4)
    R. Gudas (5), G. Denisenko (2)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +15 pts
    3-2
    18:04

2nd period

  1. FLA
    A. Barkov(12)PPG
    B. Montour (29), S. Reinhart (18)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    4-2
    1:41
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(22)PPG
    W. Nylander (26), M. Marner (37)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +13 pts
    4-3
    19:57

3rd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(23)
    M. Marner (38), M. Giordano (13)
    deflectedxG 0.13win prob +28 pts
    4-4
    5:59

Overtime

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(24)
    C. Timmins (10), J. Tavares (25)
    wristxG 0.43win prob +49 pts
    4-5
    1:53

Penalties

FLA 18 PIM·TOR 12 PIM

1st

  • 3:07FLABrandon Montour · Interferencedrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 8:58FLASam Bennett · Hookingdrawn by Pierre Engvall2 min
  • 12:21FLAGustav Forsling · Trippingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 12:47TORMitch Marner · Interferencedrawn by Eric Staal2 min
  • 13:47FLARadko Gudas · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Pierre Engvall2 min

2nd

  • 0:05TORBobby McMann · High stickingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 5:34FLASam Bennett · High stickingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 8:53FLARyan Lomberg · Hookingdrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min
  • 13:08TORTimothy Liljegren · Interferencedrawn by Sam Bennett2 min
  • 16:02FLANick Cousins · Cross checkingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 16:02TORAuston Matthews · Trippingdrawn by Nick Cousins2 min
  • 16:02TORMichael Bunting · Roughingdrawn by Marc Staal2 min
  • 16:02FLAMarc Staal · Roughingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 17:34TORZachary Aston-Reese · Roughingdrawn by Radko Gudas2 min
  • 19:45FLARadko Gudas · Chargingdrawn by Zachary Aston-Reese2 min

3rd

  • 0:34FLAGustav Forsling · Ps tripping on breakawaydrawn by William Nylander0 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalFLA goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: William Nylander, OT 1:53 — TOR 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.43D. Hunt · Goal · xG 0.35W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.24J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.22P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.21Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.19W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.18J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.14W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.13A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.13B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.13J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.13B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.12Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.12A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.12D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.11A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.09W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.07B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.07C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.07A. Kerfoot · Goal · xG 0.06D. Kampf · Missed · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.05D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.05T. Liljegren · Missed · xG 0.04M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.04J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.04P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.04P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.03C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.02D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.02A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.02M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.02M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.01T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.01D. Hunt · On goal · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.01
TOR5 G · 4.3 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsTOR
2.24 G
All situations
5 G4.3
1.52 G
Even strength
3 G3.0
0.41 G
Power play
2 G1.3
0.31 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA19%81%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.19 – 4.23

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsTOR
19
Shots on goal
37
42%
Faceoffs
58%
1/3
Power play
2/7
18
Penalty minutes
12
28
Hits
16
14
Blocked shots
15
9
Giveaways
19
6
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5A. EkbladD011+210.10230—26:23
62B. MontourD011-110.03202—23:00
42G. ForslingD000010.16012—22:54
16A. BarkovC112020.321103621:28
19M. TkachukL000+110.25010—20:36
9S. BennettC000+100.003144019:20
13S. ReinhartC011-200.00020018:15
15A. LundellC101030.26000017:56
23C. VerhaegheC101060.64000017:30
18M. StaalD000000.00302—17:07
7R. GudasD011000.01944—16:37
28J. MahuraD101010.01010—14:47
27E. LuostarinenC000+100.011008314:35
12E. StaalC000-110.140003312:15
21N. CousinsC000010.07002010:01
14G. DenisenkoL011000.07300—09:21
54G. SmithR000000.00100—06:19
94R. LombergL000010.14302—05:40
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
72S. Bobrovsky(O)37325.8654.25-0.7561:53

Season series

TOR leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).