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Predators at Hurricanes
NHL

Nashville Predators at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸5
Carolina Hurricanes
3
FinalTV BSSO·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Carolina Hurricanes 5-3. The Hurricanes scored first; the Predators answered. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mark Jankowski's goal at 5:06 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 48% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 5.5 to 4.0; shots on goal were NSH 25, CAR 67. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 87% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 64 of 67 (.955), 2.5 goals saved above expected; Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Juuse Saros (64 saves, .955), 2. Brett Pesce (2 A), 3. Paul Stastny (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    J. Saros64 saves, .955
  2. ★★
    CAR
    B. Pesce2 A
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    P. Stastny1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH1727211525
CARCAR118221028367

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    P. Stastny(2)PPG
    B. Pesce (11), T. Teravainen (12)
    deflectedxG 0.08win prob +10 pts
    0-1
    7:41
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(15)PPG
    J. Parssinen (7), R. Josi (22)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    10:29

2nd period

  1. CAR
    B. Skjei(7)
    B. Pesce (12), M. Necas (21)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    0:35
  2. NSH
    M. Ekholm(4)
    J. Parssinen (8)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    2:47
  3. CAR
    J. Staal(11)
    J. Fast (10), J. Martinook (11)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +18 pts
    2-3
    9:54
  4. NSH
    C. Glass(4)
    M. Granlund (21), A. Carrier (3)
    snapxG 0.31win prob +19 pts
    3-3
    11:55

3rd period

  1. NSH
    M. Jankowski(4)
    R. Johansen (10), M. Duchene (18)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +28 pts
    4-3
    5:06
  2. NSH
    C. Sissons(6)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.88win prob +6 pts
    5-3
    19:57

Penalties

NSH 10 PIM·CAR 8 PIM

1st

  • 6:10NSHMikael Granlund · Interferencedrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 9:22CARTeuvo Teravainen · Trippingdrawn by Jeremy Lauzon2 min
  • 13:25CARJordan Martinook · Slashingdrawn by Mark Jankowski2 min
  • 19:00NSHMattias Ekholm · Interferencedrawn by Jesperi Kotkaniemi2 min
  • 19:00CARJesperi Kotkaniemi · Embellishmentdrawn by Mattias Ekholm2 min

2nd

  • 7:13NSHJeremy Lauzon · Interferencedrawn by Martin Necas2 min
  • 17:54CARBrent Burns · Trippingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min

3rd

  • 6:35NSHAlexandre Carrier · Trippingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 16:20NSHTanner Jeannot · Hookingdrawn by Jesper Fast2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalNSH goalFinal: CAR 0%

Biggest swing: Mark Jankowski, 3rd 5:06 — NSH 48% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Fast · Missed · xG 0.34A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.27S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.25D. Stepan · On goal · xG 0.20S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.18B. Skjei · Goal · xG 0.18M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.18A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.17S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.16M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.16S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.15S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.15P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.15P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.15S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.12J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.12M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.12M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.12B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.11J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.10A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.10A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.09P. Stastny · Goal · xG 0.08S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.08J. Staal · Goal · xG 0.08P. Stastny · Missed · xG 0.08M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.07J. Fast · On goal · xG 0.07M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.06B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.06B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.06P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.06B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.06D. Stepan · Missed · xG 0.05B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.05P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.05J. Fast · On goal · xG 0.05T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.04B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.04D. Stepan · On goal · xG 0.04T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.04J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.04B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.03J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.03B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.03J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.03C. de Haan · On goal · xG 0.03B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.03B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.03M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.03A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.03B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.03B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.03J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.02B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.02B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.02A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.02B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.02B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.02A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.02B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.02T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.02A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.02B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.02B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.02S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.02B. Pesce · Missed · xG 0.01B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.01M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.01J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.01A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.01B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.01S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.01J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.01B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.01C. de Haan · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.00C. de Haan · On goal · xG 0.00T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR3 G · 5.5 xG · 84 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsCAR
4.04 G
All situations
3 G5.5
2.03 G
Even strength
2 G4.0
0.61 G
Power play
1 G1.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 118 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH13%87%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.48 – 5.36

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsCAR
25
Shots on goal
67
41%
Faceoffs
59%
1/3
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
8
18
Hits
18
21
Blocked shots
15
5
Giveaways
12
7
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD011+120.26020—25:29
27R. McDonaghD000000.03030—22:45
14M. EkholmD101+110.07212—21:12
45A. CarrierD011+100.00132—19:40
64M. GranlundC011+210.59022019:13
13Y. TreninC000+120.20510015:55
95M. DucheneC011+100.000003315:26
8C. GlassC101030.321005714:58
22N. NiederreiterR000+150.30000—14:57
3J. LauzonD000020.05312—14:33
9F. ForsbergL101-110.25000—14:31
84T. JeannotL000-110.11232—14:31
75J. ParssinenC022020.531003314:27
10C. SissonsC101+210.901105014:04
17M. JankowskiL101+110.1314010013:10
92R. JohansenC011+120.251004711:57
82T. NovakC000000.000002211:52
55R. McKeownD000+110.01000—11:49
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(W)67643.9555.49+2.4960:00

Season series

NSH leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).