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Maple Leafs at Blues
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
St. Louis Blues
4
Final/OTTV BSMW, SNO·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the St. Louis Blues 5-4 in overtime, William Nylander scoring at 4:03. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was William Nylander's goal at 4:03 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.3 to 2.8; shots on goal were TOR 37, STL 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Ilya Samsonov stopped 30 of 34 (.882), 1.2 goals below expected; Jordan Binnington stopped 32 of 37 (.865), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Calle Jarnkrok (1 G, 2 A), 2. William Nylander (1 G), 3. Ryan O'Reilly (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    C. Jarnkrok1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G
  3. ★★★
    STL
    R. O'Reilly1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR2521701114537
STLSTL11121111002434

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    J. Holl(2)
    A. Matthews (23), M. Giordano (10)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:08
  2. STL
    C. Rosen(3)
    L. Brown (2), A. Toropchenko (2)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    7:34
  3. TOR
    J. Tavares(15)
    M. Marner (28), C. Jarnkrok (6)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    19:03

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Kerfoot(5)SHG
    C. Jarnkrok (7), T. Liljegren (4)
    backhandxG 0.23win prob +18 pts
    3-1
    5:26
  2. STL
    R. O'Reilly(10)
    B. Schenn (20)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    7:39
  3. STL
    J. Faulk(6)PPG
    P. Buchnevich (15), V. Tarasenko (19)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    3-3
    9:30
  4. TOR
    C. Jarnkrok(7)
    P. Holmberg (6), P. Engvall (6)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +21 pts
    4-3
    15:16

3rd period

  1. STL
    J. Kyrou(17)
    C. Parayko (8), R. Thomas (24)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +28 pts
    4-4
    5:13

Overtime

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(21)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.20win prob +51 pts
    5-4
    4:03

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·STL 4 PIM

1st

  • 8:40TORPontus Holmberg · Hookingdrawn by Noel Acciari2 min

2nd

  • 3:59TORJustin Holl · Cross checkingdrawn by Robert Thomas2 min
  • 7:59TORAlexander Kerfoot · Holdingdrawn by Robert Bortuzzo2 min
  • 12:19STLNick Leddy · Holdingdrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min
  • 16:49STLRobert Bortuzzo · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 0:53TORJohn Tavares · Holdingdrawn by Nick Leddy2 min

OT

  • 1:24STLJordan Kyrou · Ps holding on breakawaydrawn by TJ Brodie0 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalTOR goalFinal: STL 0%

Biggest swing: William Nylander, OT 4:03 — TOR 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.18N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.15P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.14N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.13V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.12R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.11V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.10J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.09I. Barbashev · Missed · xG 0.09J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.09R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.08N. Acciari · Missed · xG 0.08B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.08V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.08R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.07N. Acciari · Missed · xG 0.07B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.07R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.06B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.06C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.06V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.06B. Saad · Missed · xG 0.06C. Rosen · Goal · xG 0.06P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.06J. Faulk · Goal · xG 0.05B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.05V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.05N. Acciari · Missed · xG 0.05R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.05J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.04R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.04J. Faulk · Missed · xG 0.04P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.04J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.03R. Bortuzzo · Missed · xG 0.03N. Mikkola · On goal · xG 0.02J. Kyrou · Goal · xG 0.02C. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.02J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.02V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.02C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.02N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.02R. Bortuzzo · On goal · xG 0.02C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.01C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.00R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.00
STL4 G · 2.8 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsSTL
4.35 G
All situations
4 G2.8
3.34 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
0.70 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.31 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR71%29%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.20 – 2.77

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsSTL
37
Shots on goal
34
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/2
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
11
Hits
36
15
Blocked shots
9
4
Giveaways
6
9
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
78T. BrodieD000+110.26000—24:57
3J. HollD101010.06132—22:57
34A. MatthewsC011+250.920107122:22
55M. GiordanoD011010.00030—22:06
88W. NylanderR101+230.44000—21:28
16M. MarnerR011-110.10010—19:48
37T. LiljegrenD011+200.00020—19:40
58M. BuntingL000+160.61000—19:37
25C. TimminsD000-110.11000—17:32
64D. KampfC000-220.270005316:13
19C. JarnkrokC123+120.351003315:07
91J. TavaresC101040.391023614:53
18J. BennD000+110.00320—13:57
47P. EngvallL011030.1200010013:00
15A. KerfootC101040.45002011:29
12Z. Aston-ReeseL000010.06210—10:55
29P. HolmbergR011+100.081123310:55
28J. AndersonR000010.05210—07:42
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35I. Samsonov(W)34304.8822.80-1.2064:03

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).