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Sabres at Golden Knights
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸3
Vegas Golden Knights
2
FinalTV ATTSN-RM, MSG-B·T-Mobile Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Vegas Golden Knights 3-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tage Thompson's goal at 7:15 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 65% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Golden Knights, 4.5 to 2.9; shots on goal were BUF 18, VGK 43. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Golden Knights win a replay of these chances 91% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 41 of 43 (.953), 2.5 goals saved above expected; Adin Hill stopped 15 of 18 (.833), 1.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (41 saves, .953), 2. Tage Thompson (1 G), 3. Reilly Smith (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    U. Luukkonen41 saves, .953
  2. ★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 G
  3. ★★★
    VGK
    R. Smith1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF063705318
VGKVGK010010223243

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J. Skinner(16)
    A. Tuch (20), L. Pilut (2)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    1-0
    1:53
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(26)
    C. Fitzgerald (3)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    7:15
  3. BUF
    L. Pilut(1)
    K. Okposo (10), P. Krebs (4)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +10 pts
    3-0
    13:28

3rd period

  1. VGK
    C. Stephenson(8)
    M. Amadio (2), A. Martinez (5)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +6 pts
    3-1
    3:54
  2. VGK
    R. Smith(17)
    A. Pietrangelo (20), W. Karlsson (16)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +7 pts
    3-2
    17:38

Penalties

BUF 6 PIM·VGK 2 PIM

1st

  • 3:59VGKKeegan Kolesar · Boardingdrawn by Ilya Lyubushkin2 min
  • 8:18BUFIlya Lyubushkin · Boardingdrawn by Jake Leschyshyn2 min
  • 13:58BUFIlya Lyubushkin · Interferencedrawn by William Carrier2 min

3rd

  • 9:47BUFMattias Samuelsson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 13:03BUFKyle Okposo · Ps tripping on breakawaydrawn by Jonathan Marchessault0 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
VGK goalBUF goalFinal: VGK 0%

Biggest swing: Tage Thompson, 2nd 7:15 — BUF 65% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.29J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.24N. Roy · On goal · xG 0.21J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.20R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.18W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.17M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.16K. Kolesar · On goal · xG 0.16C. Stephenson · Goal · xG 0.16M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.14M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.14R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.13M. Amadio · On goal · xG 0.13J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.12J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.12P. Kessel · On goal · xG 0.10M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.10W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.09J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.09M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.09R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.08C. Stephenson · Missed · xG 0.08W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.08R. Smith · Missed · xG 0.07N. Roy · Missed · xG 0.07M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.07J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.07B. Hutton · On goal · xG 0.06W. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.06R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.06W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.05A. Pietrangelo · On goal · xG 0.05A. Martinez · On goal · xG 0.05A. Pietrangelo · On goal · xG 0.05K. Kolesar · On goal · xG 0.04B. McNabb · On goal · xG 0.04A. Pietrangelo · Missed · xG 0.04W. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.04K. Kolesar · On goal · xG 0.04R. Smith · Goal · xG 0.03J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.03W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.03A. Martinez · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hague · Missed · xG 0.02B. McNabb · On goal · xG 0.02B. Hutton · On goal · xG 0.02J. Rondbjerg · Missed · xG 0.02N. Hague · Missed · xG 0.02A. Martinez · Missed · xG 0.02A. Pietrangelo · On goal · xG 0.01M. Amadio · On goal · xG 0.01A. Martinez · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pietrangelo · On goal · xG 0.01P. Kessel · Missed · xG 0.01A. Martinez · Missed · xG 0.01J. Leschyshyn · On goal · xG 0.01
VGK2 G · 4.5 xG · 57 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsVGK
2.93 G
All situations
2 G4.5
1.43 G
Even strength
2 G3.2
0.00 G
Power play
0 G1.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF9%91%VGK

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.41 – 4.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsVGK
18
Shots on goal
43
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/1
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
16
Hits
13
15
Blocked shots
9
10
Giveaways
6
13
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000010.75260—29:03
23M. SamuelssonD000030.05232—28:30
89A. TuchR011+220.59120—18:44
24D. CozensC000-110.051005018:18
72T. ThompsonC101+230.321102717:57
37C. MittelstadtC000-100.400104517:23
38K. ClagueD000000.00000—16:45
53J. SkinnerL101+210.141006316:26
46I. LyubushkinD000-100.00414—15:37
45C. FitzgeraldD011+200.00000—15:33
71V. OlofssonL000-110.23000—15:22
21K. OkposoR011030.110105014:22
20L. PilutD112+110.03000—13:31
28Z. GirgensonsC000000.22200013:29
17T. JostC000-110.030002212:46
19P. KrebsC011+110.001008011:02
22J. QuinnR000000.00000—09:45
77J. PeterkaR000000.00100—09:27
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(W)43412.9534.47+2.4760:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).