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Philadelphia Flyers at Utah Mammoth

Final/OTTV BSAZ, NBCSP+·Mullett Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Utah Mammoth beat the Philadelphia Flyers 5-4 in overtime, Clayton Keller scoring at 4:37. The lead changed hands 4 times. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Clayton Keller's goal at 4:37 of overtime, which took the Coyotes' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Flyers, 4.0 to 2.7; shots on goal were PHI 41, ARI 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Carter Hart stopped 24 of 29 (.828), 2.4 goals below expected; Karel Vejmelka stopped 37 of 41 (.902). Three stars: 1. Clayton Keller (3 G), 2. Nick Ritchie (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jack McBain (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    ARI
    C. Keller3 G
  2. ★★
    ARI
    N. Ritchie1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    ARI
    J. McBain1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
PHIPHI0931711302441
ARIARI113291512529

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. ARI
    C. Keller(8)PPG
    wristxG 0.05win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    12:46

2nd period

  1. PHI
    wristxG 0.17win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    2:09
  2. PHI
    snapxG 0.20win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    4:08
  3. ARI
    backhandxG 0.20win prob +18 pts
    2-2
    7:45
  4. ARI
    wristxG 0.15win prob +19 pts
    2-3
    10:21
  5. PHI
    wristxG 0.02win prob +22 pts
    3-3
    18:42

3rd period

  1. ARI
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.22win prob +29 pts
    3-4
    7:27
  2. PHI
    wristxG 0.28win prob +40 pts
    4-4
    17:43

Overtime

  1. ARI
    wristxG 0.09win prob +49 pts
    4-5
    4:37

Penalties

PHI 9 PIM·ARI 11 PIM

1st

  • 10:49PHIRasmus Ristolainen · Slashingdrawn by Nick Schmaltz2 min
  • 14:43ARITroy Stecher · Interferencedrawn by Travis Konecny2 min

2nd

  • 3:50PHINick Seeler · Roughingdrawn by Lawson Crouse2 min
  • 3:50ARILawson Crouse · Roughingdrawn by Nick Seeler2 min

3rd

  • 1:30ARIJoshua Brown · Fightingdrawn by Zack MacEwen5 min
  • 1:30PHIZack MacEwen · Fightingdrawn by Joshua Brown5 min
  • 8:31ARIJakob Chychrun · High stickingdrawn by Zack MacEwen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ARI goalPHI goalFinal: ARI 100%

Biggest swing: Clayton Keller, OT 4:37 — ARI 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
L. Crouse · On goal · xG 0.39N. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.26N. Ritchie · Goal · xG 0.22C. Keller · Goal · xG 0.20J. McBain · Goal · xG 0.15J. Chychrun · Missed · xG 0.15L. Crouse · On goal · xG 0.13C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.12T. Boyd · On goal · xG 0.11J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.09C. Keller · Goal · xG 0.09L. O'Brien · On goal · xG 0.09J. McBain · Missed · xG 0.06C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.06S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.06C. Keller · Goal · xG 0.05N. Ritchie · Missed · xG 0.05L. Crouse · On goal · xG 0.04L. O'Brien · On goal · xG 0.03J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.03J. Välimäki · On goal · xG 0.03J. Välimäki · Missed · xG 0.03N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.03T. Boyd · On goal · xG 0.03C. Keller · Missed · xG 0.03J. Brown · Missed · xG 0.02J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.02C. Fischer · On goal · xG 0.02C. Fischer · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.01S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.01N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.01J. Välimäki · On goal · xG 0.01N. Bjugstad · Missed · xG 0.01C. Fischer · Missed · xG 0.01T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.01
ARI5 G · 2.7 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PHIvsARI
4.04 G
All situations
5 G2.7
3.64 G
Even strength
4 G2.4
0.40 G
Power play
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PHI71%29%ARI

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.97 – 2.61

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PHIvsARI
41
Shots on goal
29
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/2
Power play
1/1
9
Penalty minutes
11
25
Hits
28
13
Blocked shots
18
6
Giveaways
8
3
Takeaways
0

Box score

every player line
Philadelphia Flyers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6T. SanheimD000020.21110—27:42
9I. ProvorovD000-240.10010—24:50
45C. YorkD000+300.17120—24:08
11T. KonecnyR101-160.94000—21:55
55R. RistolainenD000-220.09122—21:35
48M. FrostC134+420.552005020:14
25J. van RiemsdykL134+430.26000—19:59
49N. CatesL000-120.343003819:30
13K. HayesR000050.431104018:31
74O. TippettR112+340.33210—17:39
21S. LaughtonC000-220.163007116:30
61J. BraunD000-120.09100—15:16
17Z. MacEwenR000-210.0122510012:20
24N. SeelerD000+120.03112—11:59
86J. FarabeeL000-200.02200—11:03
23L. SedlakC000020.261101410:57
38P. BrownC000010.011104008:20
44N. DeslauriersL000010.01300—07:38
Philadelphia Flyers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
79C. Hart(O)29245.8282.65-2.3564:25

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).