Coyotes at Flames 2-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Utah Mammoth

Calgary Flames

▸3

FinalTV BSAZX, SN1·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Utah Mammoth 3-2. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nazem Kadri's goal at 15:42 of the third period, which took the Flames' chances from 60% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 2.9 to 2.4; shots on goal were ARI 20, CGY 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Coyotes win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Karel Vejmelka stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 0.7 goals below expected; Dan Vladar stopped 18 of 20 (.900). Three stars: 1. Nazem Kadri (1 G, 2 A), 2. Jakob Chychrun (1 G, 1 A), 3. Chris Tanev (1 A).

Three stars

★
N. Kadri1 G, 2 A
★★
J. Chychrun1 G, 1 A
★★★
C. Tanev1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ARI	07	16	17	220
CGY	28	015	14	327

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

D. Dube(5)
C. Tanev (5), N. Kadri (9)
tip-inxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
0-1
14:13
E. Lindholm(9)PPG
N. Kadri (10), J. Huberdeau (10)
wristxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
0-2
17:01

2nd period

S. Gostisbehere(5)
M. Maccelli (15), J. Chychrun (3)
wristxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
1-2
13:53

3rd period

J. Chychrun(3)
C. Keller (15), S. Gostisbehere (12)
wristxG 0.04win prob +27 pts
2-2
5:50
N. Kadri(9)PPG
T. Toffoli (10), J. Huberdeau (11)
snapxG 0.13win prob +30 pts
2-3
15:42

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

2:34Noah Hanifin · Interferencedrawn by Matias Maccelli2 min
4:43Jonathan Huberdeau · Hookingdrawn by Travis Boyd2 min
15:55Jack McBain · Hookingdrawn by Mikael Backlund2 min

3rd

15:00Jakob Chychrun · Trippingdrawn by Adam Ruzicka2 min
19:22Nick Schmaltz · Hookingdrawn by Elias Lindholm2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CGY

100%

Biggest swing: Nazem Kadri, 3rd 15:42 — CGY 60% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 2.9 xG · 35 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.4 xG · 30 att CGY

3 G · 2.9 xG · 35 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.42 G
All situations: 3 G2.9; 1.52 G
Even strength: 1 G1.7; 0.90 G
Power play: 2 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 65 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

52%48%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.39 – 2.31

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

20
Shots on goal: 27; 47%
Faceoffs: 53%; 0/2
Power play: 2/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 13
Hits: 24; 16
Blocked shots: 9; 13
Giveaways: 16; 4
Takeaways: 7

Box score

every player line

Utah Mammoth skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
9C. KellerR	0	1	1	0	0	0.14	0	0	0	—	23:32
14S. GostisbehereD	1	1	2	+1	2	0.08	0	0	0	—	21:29
6J. ChychrunD	1	1	2	+1	1	0.04	0	2	2	—	21:12
67L. CrouseL	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	1	0	0	—	20:09
63M. MaccelliL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	0	1	0	—	19:40
8N. SchmaltzC	0	0	0	-1	3	0.32	1	0	2	100	18:49
90J. MoserD	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	1	0	—	18:38
72T. BoydC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.25	0	0	0	62	18:28
17N. BjugstadC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.22	0	2	0	42	17:23
29B. HaytonC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.32	0	1	0	43	15:26
51T. StecherD	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	0	0	0	—	15:23
2P. NemethD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	2	0	—	14:45
3J. BrownD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	14:25
38L. O'BrienC	0	0	0	0	0	0.10	2	2	0	100	13:32
36C. FischerR	0	0	0	0	3	0.32	0	1	0	—	12:58
4J. VälimäkiD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	12:19
11D. GuentherR	0	0	0	+1	0	0.41	1	1	0	—	12:12
22J. McBainC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	2	2	33	09:07

Utah Mammoth goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
70K. Vejmelka(L)	27	24	3	.889	2.34	-0.66	58:07

Season series

CGY leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Utah Mammoth at Calgary Flames

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

3rd

Box score