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Avalanche at Sabres
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
Buffalo Sabres
4
FinalTV ALT, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Buffalo Sabres 6-4. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Avalanche led 5-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 11:53 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 67% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.3 to 3.7; shots on goal were COL 34, BUF 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 24 of 28 (.857); Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 28 of 33 (.848), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (2 G, 3 A), 2. J.T. Compher (2 G, 2 A), 3. Tage Thompson (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    J. Compher2 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL19413112634
BUFBUF2811119428

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    J. Compher(2)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (23), D. Toews (12)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +10 pts
    1-0
    8:48
  2. BUF
    J. Peterka(5)
    J. Quinn (8), D. Cozens (11)
    slapxG 0.20win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    10:19
  3. BUF
    T. Thompson(15)PPG
    J. Skinner (13), D. Cozens (12)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +11 pts
    1-2
    19:49

2nd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(7)PPG
    C. Makar (16), M. Rantanen (17)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    9:00
  2. COL
    A. Lehkonen(7)PPG
    J. Compher (8), N. MacKinnon (24)
    backhandxG 0.27win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    9:49
  3. COL
    N. MacKinnon(8)
    C. Makar (17), D. Toews (13)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
    4-2
    11:53
  4. BUF
    D. Cozens(9)PPG
    T. Thompson (16), J. Skinner (14)
    slapxG 0.20win prob +17 pts
    4-3
    14:05
  5. COL
    J. Compher(3)
    L. O'Connor (3), A. Cogliano (3)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
    5-3
    17:16

3rd period

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(11)
    R. Dahlin (19), T. Thompson (17)
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
    5-4
    0:07
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(14)EN
    J. Compher (9), N. MacKinnon (25)
    wristxG 0.54win prob +5 pts
    6-4
    19:25

Penalties

COL 16 PIM·BUF 14 PIM

1st

  • 0:54COLJosh Manson · Cross checkingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 7:27BUFTage Thompson · Hookingdrawn by Devon Toews2 min
  • 11:10COLNathan MacKinnon · Holdingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 19:04COLLogan O'Connor · Holdingdrawn by JJ Peterka2 min

2nd

  • 2:07BUFJJ Peterka · Holdingdrawn by Logan O'Connor2 min
  • 3:52BUFKyle Okposo · Roughingdrawn by Jean-Luc Foudy2 min
  • 3:52COLArtturi Lehkonen · Roughingdrawn by Casey Fitzgerald2 min
  • 7:45BUFHenri Jokiharju · Hookingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 7:50BUFOwen Power · High stickingdrawn by Artturi Lehkonen2 min
  • 12:20COLMikko Rantanen · Hookingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min
  • 12:20COLDevon Toews · Cross checkingdrawn by Jack Quinn2 min

3rd

  • 1:13BUFOwen Power · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 6:02COLJayson Megna · Holdingdrawn by Jack Quinn2 min
  • 13:30COLAnton Blidh · Trippingdrawn by Victor Olofsson2 min
  • 16:56BUFPeyton Krebs · Hookingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalCOL goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 2nd 11:53 — COL 67% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.32C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.21D. Cozens · Goal · xG 0.20J. Peterka · Goal · xG 0.20T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.20J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.20T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.18T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.18V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.16R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.15A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.14J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.14A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.14T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.11J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.09J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.09J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.09A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.08J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.08R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.07J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.07T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.07D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.05J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.04V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.03T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.03J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.02C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.01J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.01T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 3.7 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsBUF
4.35 G
All situations
4 G3.7
1.42 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
2.43 G
Power play
2 G1.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL53%47%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.73 – 3.53

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsBUF
34
Shots on goal
28
56%
Faceoffs
44%
3/6
Power play
2/7
16
Penalty minutes
14
10
Hits
13
19
Blocked shots
6
5
Giveaways
6
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD022060.49100—30:38
7D. ToewsD022+110.03242—26:03
62A. LehkonenL101040.69012—25:18
29N. MacKinnonC235+181.150224425:09
96M. RantanenR112+120.710026025:04
37J. CompherL224+230.630006622:09
6E. JohnsonD000030.06140—19:02
11A. CoglianoC011+110.11000016:23
25L. O'ConnorR011+140.37102—16:17
49S. GirardD000+110.05030—16:13
18A. NewhookC000000.000003311:49
26J. MacDonaldD000-110.02010—10:18
42J. MansonD000+100.01132—10:17
93J. FoudyC000000.00100007:24
22D. HuntL000-100.00300—07:11
36A. BlidhL000-100.00002—06:37
47A. GalchenyukC000000.0001010006:31
12J. MegnaC000-100.0000210005:05
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(W)28244.8573.66-0.3460:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).