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Avalanche at Islanders
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
4
New York Islanders
▸5
FinalTV ALT, MSGSN·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-4. The Islanders came back from three goals down. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Scott Mayfield's goal at 10:39 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 20% to 52%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 3.7 to 3.4; shots on goal were COL 37, NYI 44. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 39 of 43 (.907), 0.9 goals below expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 33 of 37 (.892), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Anthony Beauvillier (1 G), 2. Evan Rodrigues (2 G), 3. Noah Dobson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    A. Beauvillier1 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    E. Rodrigues2 G
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    N. Dobson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL011312114437
NYINYI010113421544

Scoring

9 goals

2nd period

  1. COL
    E. Rodrigues(3)PPG
    M. Rantanen (7), A. Lehkonen (4)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    0:46
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(4)
    J. Manson (1)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    7:28
  3. COL
    E. Rodrigues(4)
    N. MacKinnon (8), D. Toews (4)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +10 pts
    3-0
    8:33
  4. NYI
    N. Dobson(3)
    A. Romanov (2), O. Wahlstrom (2)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +10 pts
    3-1
    9:53

3rd period

  1. NYI
    Z. Parise(3)
    J. Pageau (5), R. Pulock (4)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    3:35
  2. NYI
    S. Mayfield(3)
    M. Barzal (10), C. Cizikas (2)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +32 pts
    3-3
    10:39
  3. NYI
    A. Beauvillier(3)
    A. Lee (5)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +32 pts
    3-4
    10:56
  4. NYI
    B. Nelson(3)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.61win prob +6 pts
    3-5
    18:39
  5. COL
    A. Newhook(1)
    C. Makar (8), N. MacKinnon (9)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +3 pts
    4-5
    19:30

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·NYI 4 PIM

1st

  • 15:40COLKurtis MacDermid · Cross checkingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min
  • 19:15NYICasey Cizikas · Cross checkingdrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min

2nd

  • 2:44NYIOliver Wahlstrom · Hookingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 5:11COLMikko Rantanen · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Semyon Varlamov2 min

3rd

  • 7:10COLNathan MacKinnon · Cross checkingdrawn by Adam Pelech2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalCOL goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Scott Mayfield, 3rd 10:39 — NYI 20% → 52%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.61C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.16O. Wahlstrom · Missed · xG 0.16A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.14M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.13Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.13M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.12O. Wahlstrom · Missed · xG 0.12J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.11S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.10C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.09Z. Parise · Goal · xG 0.09Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.09A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.08J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.08K. Palmieri · Missed · xG 0.08M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.06A. Beauvillier · Goal · xG 0.06J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.05N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.05S. Mayfield · Goal · xG 0.05C. Clutterbuck · Missed · xG 0.05A. Romanov · On goal · xG 0.05N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.04M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.04B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.04N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.04B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.04N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.04A. Beauvillier · Missed · xG 0.04O. Wahlstrom · On goal · xG 0.04A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.04O. Wahlstrom · Missed · xG 0.04A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.03R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.03N. Dobson · Goal · xG 0.03J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.03N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.03A. Romanov · On goal · xG 0.02K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.02N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.02S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.01A. Romanov · On goal · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.01A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.01N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.00O. Wahlstrom · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI5 G · 3.7 xG · 55 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsNYI
3.44 G
All situations
4 G3.7
2.83 G
Even strength
4 G2.9
0.61 G
Power play
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 102 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL56%44%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.39 – 3.00

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsNYI
37
Shots on goal
44
57%
Faceoffs
43%
1/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
21
Hits
26
10
Blocked shots
15
3
Giveaways
8
8
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD011040.11130—28:02
9E. RodriguesC202-130.422207527:10
29N. MacKinnonC022-140.560126425:02
96M. RantanenR112020.250028023:36
7D. ToewsD011050.10010—22:57
62A. LehkonenL011-230.35100—21:16
4B. ByramD000-310.08300—19:26
25L. O'ConnorR000-130.45110—17:37
49S. GirardD000-310.02000—17:37
42J. MansonD011+110.02220—14:32
37J. CompherL000-230.490005514:26
6E. JohnsonD000+110.01500—13:07
18A. NewhookC101030.140002912:21
11A. CoglianoC000020.3620010012:13
22D. HuntL000010.03400—11:51
61M. KautR000+100.00000—05:25
56K. MacDermidL000000.00002—04:50
57M. MaltsevL000000.000004004:18
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(L)43394.9073.13-0.8758:14

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).