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Islanders at Lightning
NHL

New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
3
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
FinalTV BSSUNX, MSGSN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the New York Islanders 5-3. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nick Paul's goal at 19:59 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 75% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.3 to 3.1; shots on goal were NYI 35, TBL 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 21 of 26 (.808), 2.0 goals below expected; Brian Elliott stopped 32 of 35 (.914). Three stars: 1. Brayden Point (1 G, 1 A), 2. Brandon Hagel (1 G, 1 A), 3. Nick Paul (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    B. Point1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    B. Hagel1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    N. Paul1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI111111113335
TBLTBL2721415526

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(4)
    N. Kucherov (8), B. Hagel (1)
    snapxG 0.28win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    10:43
  2. NYI
    M. Martin(1)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.18win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    12:29
  3. TBL
    B. Hagel(1)
    B. Point (2), V. Hedman (5)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    18:03

2nd period

  1. TBL
    C. Perry(2)
    P. Bellemare (1), P. Maroon (1)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    3:12
  2. NYI
    A. Beauvillier(2)
    B. Nelson (5)
    backhandxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    9:36
  3. TBL
    N. Paul(1)
    R. Colton (2)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +16 pts
    2-4
    19:59

3rd period

  1. NYI
    R. Pulock(1)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.14win prob +14 pts
    3-4
    5:45
  2. TBL
    A. Killorn(1)
    N. Paul (1), M. Sergachev (4)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +10 pts
    3-5
    14:08

Penalties

NYI 6 PIM·TBL 6 PIM

1st

  • 0:40TBLPhilippe Myers · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 18:40NYIBrock Nelson · Hookingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 19:58NYICal Clutterbuck · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

2nd

  • 4:02TBLMikhail Sergachev · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Soshnikov2 min

3rd

  • 3:04TBLPhilippe Myers · Trippingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 11:45NYIMathew Barzal · Slashingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalNYI goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Nick Paul, 2nd 19:59 — TBL 75% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.68N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.67B. Point · Goal · xG 0.28B. Hagel · Goal · xG 0.25A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.24A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.19A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.18C. Perry · Goal · xG 0.18C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.16B. Point · On goal · xG 0.12A. Killorn · Goal · xG 0.12S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.12C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.11C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.09N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.09B. Point · Missed · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.07V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.07P. Maroon · Missed · xG 0.05R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.05A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.05V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.04V. Namestnikov · Missed · xG 0.04N. Paul · Goal · xG 0.03B. Point · Missed · xG 0.03V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.02C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.01N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.01N. Perbix · Missed · xG 0.01B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL5 G · 4.3 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsTBL
3.13 G
All situations
5 G4.3
2.43 G
Even strength
5 G1.8
0.70 G
Power play
0 G1.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI52%48%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.04 – 2.90

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsTBL
35
Shots on goal
26
43%
Faceoffs
57%
0/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
48
Hits
29
9
Blocked shots
20
4
Giveaways
17
4
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8N. DobsonD000-210.14210—23:03
3A. PelechD000-110.02320—22:00
13M. BarzalC000-220.230124020:29
28A. RomanovD000-110.03210—19:00
6R. PulockD101+120.20020—18:58
27A. LeeL000040.23300—18:20
11Z. PariseL000-130.21100—17:49
29B. NelsonC011040.313124217:31
21K. PalmieriC000-210.38000016:55
18A. BeauvillierR101030.17200—16:53
53C. CizikasC000+110.277105015:38
24S. MayfieldD000-110.02000—15:26
44J. PageauC000-110.103003615:25
25S. AhoD000010.01000—14:18
26O. WahlstromR000-150.2020010013:49
15C. ClutterbuckR000010.211002—11:18
41N. SoshnikovR000-100.11300—10:26
17M. MartinL101+130.22700—09:25
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin(L)26215.8083.00-2.0057:17

Season series

TBL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).