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Stars at Predators
NHL

Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
▸4
Nashville Predators
1
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Nashville Predators 4-1. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mason Marchment's goal at 18:56 of the first period, which took the Stars' chances from 64% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.5 to 2.3; shots on goal were DAL 29, NSH 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 1.3 goals saved above expected; Juuse Saros stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mason Marchment (2 G), 2. Tyler Seguin (3 A), 3. Jake Oettinger (31 saves, .969).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    M. Marchment2 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    T. Seguin3 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Oettinger31 saves, .969

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL21211017429
NSHNSH09011112132

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    M. Marchment(1)
    T. Seguin (1)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:31
  2. DAL
    M. Marchment(2)PPG
    N. Lundkvist (1), T. Seguin (2)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    18:56

2nd period

  1. DAL
    J. Pavelski(1)
    R. Hintz (1), J. Robertson (1)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +8 pts
    3-0
    19:09

3rd period

  1. DAL
    W. Johnston(1)PPG
    T. Seguin (3), R. Suter (1)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +2 pts
    4-0
    4:22
  2. NSH
    R. Johansen(1)
    E. Tolvanen (2)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +2 pts
    4-1
    4:53

Penalties

DAL 15 PIM·NSH 13 PIM

1st

  • 7:54DALMiro Heiskanen · Trippingdrawn by Yakov Trenin2 min
  • 13:51DALJani Hakanpää · Fightingdrawn by Tanner Jeannot5 min
  • 13:51NSHYakov Trenin · Slashingdrawn by Jani Hakanpää2 min
  • 13:51NSHTanner Jeannot · Fightingdrawn by Jani Hakanpää5 min
  • 18:03NSHserved by K. Sherwood · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

  • 12:14NSHEeli Tolvanen · Elbowingdrawn by Mason Marchment2 min
  • 15:06DALColin Miller · Hookingdrawn by Eeli Tolvanen2 min

3rd

  • 1:18DALJani Hakanpää · Trippingdrawn by Ryan Johansen2 min
  • 3:01NSHAlexandre Carrier · Holdingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min
  • 8:23DALEsa Lindell · Hookingdrawn by Michael McCarron2 min
  • 18:09DALJani Hakanpää · Cross checkingdrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalDAL goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Mason Marchment, 1st 18:56 — DAL 64% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.17F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.16N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.14F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.12R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.12M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.11C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.09E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.09N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.09R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.08C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.08R. Johansen · Goal · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.06T. Jeannot · Missed · xG 0.06R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.06R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.05R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.05M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.05A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.05M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.05M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.05F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.04M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.04A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.04N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.02N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02M. Borowiecki · Missed · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.02Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.01E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.01N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.01E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.00D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH1 G · 2.3 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsNSH
3.54 G
All situations
1 G2.3
1.82 G
Even strength
1 G1.4
1.42 G
Power play
0 G0.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL66%34%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.20 – 2.28

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsNSH
29
Shots on goal
32
50%
Faceoffs
50%
2/4
Power play
0/5
15
Penalty minutes
13
30
Hits
45
17
Blocked shots
7
9
Giveaways
8
8
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD000+220.13102—26:53
20R. SuterD011000.00010—22:16
23E. LindellD000-100.00222—18:16
6C. MillerD000+100.02012—17:26
2J. HakanpääD000-100.03729—17:15
21J. RobertsonL011+160.72100—16:42
91T. SeguinC033030.232002316:42
24R. HintzC011+110.491306016:40
16J. PavelskiC101+130.324004015:38
5N. LundkvistD011010.08010—15:28
10T. DellandreaC000010.1432010014:43
25J. KivirantaL000030.18110—14:33
12R. FaksaC000+110.091106014:09
53W. JohnstonC101010.100003313:33
27M. MarchmentL202050.64400—13:04
11L. GlendeningC000+100.001308312:49
34D. GurianovR000-120.33000—12:42
14J. BennL000000.002007111:20
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(W)32311.9692.29+1.2960:00

Season series

DAL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).