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Lightning at Panthers
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸2
Florida Panthers
1
FinalTV TNT, CBC·FLA Live Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Florida Panthers 2-1. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ross Colton's goal at 19:56 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 48% to 99%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 2.9 to 2.3; shots on goal were TBL 28, FLA 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 35 of 36 (.972), 1.9 goals saved above expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 26 of 28 (.929). Three stars: 1. Ross Colton (1 G), 2. Andrei Vasilevskiy (35 saves, .972), 3. Sergei Bobrovsky (26 saves, .929).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    R. Colton1 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy35 saves, .972
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    S. Bobrovsky26 saves, .929

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL1601418228
FLAFLA010116010136

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    C. Perry(4)PPG
    S. Stamkos (4), V. Hedman (7)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    12:06

2nd period

  1. FLA
    E. Luostarinen(1)
    G. Forsling (3), C. Giroux (5)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +23 pts
    1-1
    18:07

3rd period

  1. TBL
    R. Colton(5)
    N. Kucherov (8), O. Palat (3)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +51 pts
    2-1
    19:56

Penalties

TBL 8 PIM·FLA 6 PIM

1st

  • 11:29FLABrandon Montour · Hookingdrawn by Ross Colton2 min

2nd

  • 2:18TBLPierre-Edouard Bellemare · Trippingdrawn by Aaron Ekblad2 min
  • 10:24TBLVictor Hedman · Holding the stickdrawn by Claude Giroux2 min
  • 14:25FLARadko Gudas · Cross checkingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 19:13TBLNikita Kucherov · Trippingdrawn by Brandon Montour2 min

3rd

  • 8:44FLAserved by C. Verhaeghe · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 16:37TBLSteven Stamkos · Trippingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalTBL goalFinal: FLA 0%

Biggest swing: Ross Colton, 3rd 19:56 — TBL 48% → 99%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Hornqvist · Missed · xG 0.20S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.16A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.15S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.13S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.09A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.09S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.09S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.09C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.09A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.09A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.08S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.08A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.08S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.08J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.08G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.08A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.07S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.07A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.07C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.07C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.07C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.07B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.06C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.06R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.06B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.06E. Luostarinen · Goal · xG 0.05B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.05B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.04A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.04C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.04C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.04A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.03P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.03E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.03G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.03A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.03G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.03B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.03C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.02G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.02C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.02A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.02M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.02R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.02G. Forsling · Missed · xG 0.01R. Lomberg · On goal · xG 0.01G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.01E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.00R. Lomberg · On goal · xG 0.00R. Gudas · Missed · xG 0.00
FLA1 G · 2.9 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsFLA
2.32 G
All situations
1 G2.9
1.51 G
Even strength
1 G2.1
0.51 G
Power play
0 G0.9
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL39%61%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.31 – 2.93

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsFLA
28
Shots on goal
36
43%
Faceoffs
57%
1/3
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
35
Hits
52
24
Blocked shots
14
9
Giveaways
10
4
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27R. McDonaghD000010.06030—25:06
20N. PaulL000040.293205922:59
86N. KucherovR011+140.27012—22:00
77V. HedmanD011010.06222—21:44
71A. CirelliC000010.104202520:41
81E. CernakD000-100.00540—20:15
17A. KillornL000-120.26210—19:10
18O. PalatL011030.11210—19:10
98M. SergachevD000000.00110—18:17
91S. StamkosC011030.321223317:13
79R. ColtonC101+120.092005013:25
10C. PerryR101010.14100—13:02
24Z. BogosianD000000.05410—12:29
41P. BellemareL000-110.074224311:58
38B. HagelL000020.24010—10:32
44J. RuttaD000+110.01100—09:38
52C. FooteD000010.03100—08:11
14P. MaroonL000010.24210—06:10
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)36351.9722.94+1.9460:00

Series

TBL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).