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Flames at Jets
NHL

Calgary Flames at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
1
Winnipeg Jets
▸3
FinalTV SNW, TSN3·Canada Life Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Calgary Flames 3-1. The Flames scored first; the Jets answered. The Jets led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mason Appleton's goal at 6:06 of the second period, which took the Jets' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 5.2 to 2.3; shots on goal were CGY 33, WPG 43. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 84% of the time. Dan Vladar stopped 40 of 42 (.952), 2.8 goals saved above expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 1.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Nikolaj Ehlers (1 A), 2. Blake Wheeler (1 G), 3. Connor Hellebuyck (32 saves, .970).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    N. Ehlers1 A
  2. ★★
    WPG
    B. Wheeler1 G
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    C. Hellebuyck32 saves, .970

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY1180807133
WPGWPG112119112343

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(42)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.20win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:19
  2. WPG
    B. Wheeler(16)
    N. Ehlers (27), P. Stastny (23)
    slapxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    19:47

2nd period

  1. WPG
    M. Appleton(8)
    J. Morrissey (25), Z. Sanford (12)
    wristxG 0.48win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    6:06

3rd period

  1. WPG
    B. Dillon(3)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.38win prob +5 pts
    1-3
    19:40

Penalties

CGY 8 PIM·WPG 4 PIM

1st

  • 5:47WPGJosh Morrissey · High stickingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 9:41CGYMikael Backlund · Trippingdrawn by Blake Wheeler2 min
  • 10:23CGYTyler Toffoli · Hookingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min
  • 13:36WPGBrenden Dillon · Roughingdrawn by Tyler Toffoli2 min

2nd

  • 7:46CGYNikita Zadorov · Trippingdrawn by Paul Stastny2 min

3rd

  • 8:20CGYElias Lindholm · Hookingdrawn by Josh Morrissey2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalCGY goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Mason Appleton, 2nd 6:06 — WPG 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Appleton · Goal · xG 0.48B. Dillon · Goal · xG 0.37K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.27P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.26M. Barron · On goal · xG 0.22B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.18B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.16B. Wheeler · Missed · xG 0.15P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.15B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.14M. Barron · On goal · xG 0.13K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.13B. Wheeler · Goal · xG 0.12K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.12P. Dubois · Missed · xG 0.12B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.12N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.12M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.11P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.11A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.11K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.10J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.10P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.10P. Stastny · Missed · xG 0.09N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.09K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.09K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.08N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.07E. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.07A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.07P. Dubois · Missed · xG 0.06J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.05J. Harkins · Missed · xG 0.05D. Toninato · Missed · xG 0.05P. Dubois · Missed · xG 0.04N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.04N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.04J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.04J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.03B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.03K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.03P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.03J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.02K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.02B. Dillon · On goal · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.02N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.02N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.01J. Harkins · On goal · xG 0.01N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.01J. Harkins · Missed · xG 0.01J. Harkins · On goal · xG 0.01N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.00D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG3 G · 5.2 xG · 60 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsWPG
2.31 G
All situations
2 G5.2
1.61 G
Even strength
2 G3.7
0.70 G
Power play
0 G1.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 105 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY16%84%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.26 – 4.70

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsWPG
33
Shots on goal
43
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/2
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
22
Hits
17
16
Blocked shots
11
13
Giveaways
18
8
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. AnderssonD000-140.10120—22:11
8C. TanevD000-100.00040—21:26
16N. ZadorovD000020.04302—20:07
28E. LindholmC000-140.443125319:40
55N. HanifinD000-130.07230—19:32
19M. TkachukL101-120.34010—18:39
13J. GaudreauL000-110.06000—18:06
26M. StoneD000030.12200—17:13
58O. KylingtonD000-130.08130—16:45
73T. ToffoliC000030.362025015:19
88A. MangiapaneL000-120.08000—14:48
20B. ColemanL000010.13000—14:39
11M. BacklundC000-110.040024414:07
29D. DubeC000010.2221010014:06
91C. JarnkrokC000000.000005013:24
17M. LucicL000-110.02100—11:19
63A. RuzickaC000020.232105611:16
24B. RitchieR000-100.00300—10:43
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
80D. Vladar(L)42402.9524.82+2.8258:40

Season series

WPG leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).