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Islanders at Sabres
NHL

New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres

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New York Islanders
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
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Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the New York Islanders 5-3. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tage Thompson's goal at 4:05 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 70% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.4 to 1.4; shots on goal were NYI 22, BUF 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 82% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 30 of 35 (.857), 1.6 goals below expected; Dustin Tokarski stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 1.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tage Thompson (1 G, 1 A), 2. Rasmus Dahlin (1 G), 3. Vinnie Hinostroza (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    R. Dahlin1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    V. Hinostroza1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI1605211322
BUFBUF112310113535

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(5)
    K. Okposo (24), C. Fitzgerald (6)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    12:11
  2. NYI
    M. Barzal(15)
    N. Dobson (35), S. Aho (10)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    17:09

2nd period

  1. BUF
    R. Dahlin(13)PPG
    J. Skinner (29), A. Tuch (26)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    1:17
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(37)
    J. Bryson (9), V. Olofsson (28)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    4:05
  3. BUF
    V. Hinostroza(13)
    A. Bjork (3), Z. Girgensons (8)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +8 pts
    1-4
    12:48

3rd period

  1. NYI
    N. Dobson(12)
    Z. Parise (19), Z. Chara (12)
    backhandxG 0.16win prob +4 pts
    2-4
    8:45
  2. NYI
    K. Bellows(5)
    R. Pulock (15), O. Koivula (2)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    3-4
    10:22
  3. BUF
    J. Skinner(33)
    T. Thompson (30), V. Olofsson (29)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    3-5
    12:40

Penalties

NYI 34 PIM·BUF 16 PIM

1st

  • 3:39NYIZdeno Chara · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min
  • 5:48NYIAdam Pelech · Trippingdrawn by Victor Olofsson2 min
  • 9:34BUFDylan Cozens · Hookingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 19:35NYIAdam Pelech · Hookingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min

2nd

  • 7:45BUFJeff Skinner · Slashingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
  • 14:49NYISebastian Aho · Hookingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min

3rd

  • 14:40NYIRoss Johnston · Misconduct10 min
  • 14:40BUFJeff Skinner · Misconduct10 min
  • 14:40NYIAdam Pelech · Misconduct10 min
  • 14:40NYIAdam Pelech · Roughingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 14:40BUFJeff Skinner · Roughingdrawn by Matt Martin2 min
  • 14:40NYIMatt Martin · Roughingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 16:59NYIZach Parise · Slashingdrawn by Anders Bjork2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalNYI goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Tage Thompson, 2nd 4:05 — BUF 70% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.34V. Hinostroza · Goal · xG 0.18C. Fitzgerald · On goal · xG 0.16T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.16C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.16K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.15K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.15C. Mittelstadt · Goal · xG 0.12D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.12J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.11J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.10J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.10V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.09A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.09D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.09K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.08C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.08V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.08V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.07R. Asplund · Missed · xG 0.07R. Dahlin · Goal · xG 0.07T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.07C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.07D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.07C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.06R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.06D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.05D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.05D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.04C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.04H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.03H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.03C. Fitzgerald · On goal · xG 0.03K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.03C. Fitzgerald · Missed · xG 0.02D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.02A. Bjork · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.02D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.01D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.01
BUF5 G · 3.4 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsBUF
1.43 G
All situations
5 G3.4
1.23 G
Even strength
4 G2.2
0.20 G
Power play
1 G1.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI18%82%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.41 – 3.30

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsBUF
22
Shots on goal
35
60%
Faceoffs
40%
0/2
Power play
1/6
34
Penalty minutes
16
14
Hits
5
10
Blocked shots
10
3
Giveaways
6
10
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6R. PulockD011-140.14010—23:32
8N. DobsonD112010.16020—22:06
12J. BaileyR000000.01000—20:58
33Z. CharaD011000.00302—20:27
3A. PelechD000-120.031216—19:34
13M. BarzalC101+210.030102918:29
21K. PalmieriC000+130.20200017:49
29B. NelsonC000-100.000006517:22
11Z. PariseL011+110.230028017:11
4A. GreeneD000-100.00020—16:41
27A. LeeL000020.07000—15:47
53C. CizikasC000-200.000007514:38
25S. AhoD011+100.00112—12:49
26O. WahlstromR000010.06000—12:04
20K. BellowsL101050.26000—11:34
17M. MartinL000-200.07202—10:47
36O. KoivulaL011010.103102510:15
32R. JohnstonL000-210.062010—07:09
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin(L)35305.8573.40-1.6059:06

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).