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Red Wings at Lightning
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
▸4
Tampa Bay Lightning
3
FinalTV BSDETX, BSSUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Red Wings led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jakub Vrana's goal at 5:09 of the third period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 48% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.8 to 3.4; shots on goal were DET 31, TBL 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Thomas Greiss stopped 38 of 41 (.927), 1.8 goals saved above expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jakub Vrana (2 G), 2. Steven Stamkos (3 A), 3. Ross Colton (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    J. Vrana2 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos3 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    R. Colton2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET05316110431
TBLTBL015213113341

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. TBL
    R. Colton(18)
    S. Stamkos (52), O. Palat (25)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +17 pts
    0-1
    3:58
  2. DET
    O. Sundqvist(7)
    D. DeKeyser (9), M. Seider (42)
    backhandxG 0.20win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    4:20
  3. DET
    J. Vrana(11)
    F. Zadina (14), J. Walman (6)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    6:34
  4. DET
    L. Raymond(23)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    8:17
  5. TBL
    N. Kucherov(19)PPG
    V. Hedman (54), S. Stamkos (53)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +13 pts
    3-2
    9:47

3rd period

  1. TBL
    R. Colton(19)
    S. Stamkos (54), E. Cernak (10)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +24 pts
    3-3
    0:43
  2. DET
    J. Vrana(12)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.27win prob +28 pts
    4-3
    5:09

Penalties

DET 6 PIM·TBL 4 PIM

1st

  • 5:00DETTyler Bertuzzi · Hookingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min

2nd

  • 4:28TBLErik Cernak · Cross checkingdrawn by Tyler Bertuzzi2 min
  • 9:40DETDanny DeKeyser · Hookingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 13:30DETMarc Staal · Cross checkingdrawn by Ondrej Palat2 min
  • 18:05TBLSteven Stamkos · Trippingdrawn by Michael Rasmussen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalDET goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Jakub Vrana, 3rd 5:09 — DET 48% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.24C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.23C. Perry · Missed · xG 0.17S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.16P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.15B. Point · Missed · xG 0.15C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.14R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.14B. Point · Missed · xG 0.13N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.13R. Colton · Goal · xG 0.13A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.12A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.12P. Maroon · Missed · xG 0.12P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.11P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.11N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.11B. Point · Missed · xG 0.11B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.10N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.10N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.10R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.10N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.09R. Colton · Goal · xG 0.09S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.09C. Perry · Missed · xG 0.09B. Point · On goal · xG 0.09O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.08R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.08B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.07A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.07C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.07B. Point · On goal · xG 0.07A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.07C. Perry · Missed · xG 0.06J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.06S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.06V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.05C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.05O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.04A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.04M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.02V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.02A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.02C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.01J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.01
TBL3 G · 4.8 xG · 58 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsTBL
3.44 G
All situations
3 G4.8
3.14 G
Even strength
2 G3.9
0.20 G
Power play
1 G1.0
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 103 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET31%69%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.36 – 4.68

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsTBL
31
Shots on goal
41
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/2
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
27
Hits
18
14
Blocked shots
11
1
Giveaways
3
12
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
53M. SeiderD011+110.12310—23:12
17F. HronekD000030.10210—21:46
59T. BertuzziL000+110.21302—19:48
18M. StaalD000000.01212—18:53
24P. SuterC000+250.530004318:51
65D. DeKeyserD011000.00132—18:14
27M. RasmussenC000010.023105418:12
8J. WalmanD011+220.05340—18:10
90J. VelenoC000+130.371004717:04
70O. SundqvistC101030.291202016:38
23L. RaymondL101+120.27000—16:22
11F. ZadinaR011+240.7200010015:22
28G. LindstromD000000.00210—14:35
15J. VranaL202+230.54100—14:17
73A. ErneL000-120.12100—13:29
89S. GagnerC000000.000005012:10
82J. OesterleD000010.01300—09:41
22M. StephensC000-100.031004409:09
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29T. Greiss(W)41383.9274.82+1.8260:00

Season series

TBL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).