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Maple Leafs at Islanders
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸3
New York Islanders
1
FinalTV MSG+ 2, SN·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the New York Islanders 3-1. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Morgan Rielly's goal at 9:42 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 66% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.4 to 2.0; shots on goal were TOR 23, NYI 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Petr Mrazek stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 20 of 23 (.870), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Morgan Rielly (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mitch Marner (1 G), 3. Zach Parise (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Rielly1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    Z. Parise1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR2911004323
NYINYI1706015128

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(9)SHG
    M. Rielly (28)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    13:25
  2. NYI
    Z. Parise(2)
    S. Mayfield (8)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    19:00
  3. TOR
    P. Engvall(5)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.02win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    19:59

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Rielly(5)
    W. Nylander (22), A. Kerfoot (21)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    9:42

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·NYI 4 PIM

1st

  • 1:45NYIBrock Nelson · Trippingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 4:10NYIAnthony Beauvillier · Slashingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 13:16TORJason Spezza · Holdingdrawn by Noah Dobson2 min

2nd

  • 9:54TORCarl Dahlstrom · Interferencedrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min

3rd

  • 7:55TORMorgan Rielly · Hookingdrawn by Adam Pelech2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalTOR goalFinal: NYI 0%

Biggest swing: Morgan Rielly, 2nd 9:42 — TOR 66% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.15K. Bellows · On goal · xG 0.15A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.11M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.10M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.10K. Bellows · On goal · xG 0.09A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.09M. Barzal · Missed · xG 0.09Z. Parise · Goal · xG 0.08A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.08A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.07A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.06A. Greene · On goal · xG 0.06J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.06M. Martin · Missed · xG 0.06C. Clutterbuck · Missed · xG 0.05M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Chara · On goal · xG 0.05M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.04N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.04M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Chara · On goal · xG 0.04N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.03C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.03N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.03N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.03N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.03C. Clutterbuck · Missed · xG 0.03A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.02R. Salo · On goal · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.02Z. Chara · Missed · xG 0.02A. Greene · On goal · xG 0.02K. Bellows · On goal · xG 0.01A. Greene · Missed · xG 0.01N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.00N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI1 G · 2.0 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsNYI
2.43 G
All situations
1 G2.0
1.92 G
Even strength
1 G1.5
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.31 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 66 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR56%44%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.33 – 2.03

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsNYI
23
Shots on goal
28
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
16
Hits
20
9
Blocked shots
14
14
Giveaways
16
7
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
78T. BrodieD000+210.04100—26:00
44M. RiellyD112+240.30012—25:20
16M. MarnerR101010.29100—21:09
38R. SandinD000-110.05110—20:18
34A. MatthewsC000-120.160005019:16
37T. LiljegrenD000-110.04200—19:04
65I. MikheyevR000+100.00010—17:36
58M. BuntingL000-120.12110—17:05
15A. KerfootC011+100.00020016:39
88W. NylanderR011+120.57010—16:10
64D. KampfC000+200.001004716:05
91J. TavaresC000+100.092005815:48
23T. DermottD000+100.00100—13:14
48C. DahlstromD000+100.00012—12:30
47P. EngvallL101+130.20300—11:40
19J. SpezzaC000020.200027509:18
24W. SimmondsR000030.23310—08:58
28J. AndersonR000010.07000—07:50
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Mrazek(W)28271.9642.04+1.0459:47

Season series

TOR leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).