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Flyers at Sabres
NHL

Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Philadelphia Flyers
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
FinalTV NBCSP, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Philadelphia Flyers 4-3. The Sabres came back from two goals down. The Sabres led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Vinnie Hinostroza's goal at 15:36 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 31% to 53%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.5 to 1.7; shots on goal were PHI 21, BUF 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Martin Jones stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 1.5 goals below expected; Craig Anderson stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Rasmus Dahlin (1 G, 1 A), 2. Vinnie Hinostroza (1 G), 3. Kyle Okposo (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    R. Dahlin1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    V. Hinostroza1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    K. Okposo1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PHIPHI2714010321
BUFBUF0941802429

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. PHI
    J. Farabee(17)
    B. Brink (2), K. Yandle (15)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    1:41
  2. PHI
    O. Tippett(9)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.27win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    3:55

2nd period

  1. BUF
    K. Okposo(20)PPG
    P. Krebs (13), H. Jokiharju (15)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    3:17
  2. BUF
    R. Dahlin(11)
    J. Skinner (25), V. Olofsson (24)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +18 pts
    2-2
    8:27
  3. PHI
    T. Konecny(14)
    N. Cates (1), T. Sanheim (23)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +21 pts
    3-2
    14:06
  4. BUF
    V. Hinostroza(12)
    Z. Girgensons (7), C. Fitzgerald (5)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +21 pts
    3-3
    15:36
  5. BUF
    T. Thompson(34)PPG
    C. Mittelstadt (13), R. Dahlin (37)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +17 pts
    3-4
    17:58

Penalties

PHI 10 PIM·BUF 10 PIM

1st

  • 11:18BUFRasmus Dahlin · Slashingdrawn by Travis Konecny2 min
  • 13:20PHITravis Konecny · Roughingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 13:46BUFAlex Tuch · Roughingdrawn by Travis Sanheim2 min
  • 13:46PHITravis Sanheim · Slashingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min

2nd

  • 1:41PHIIvan Provorov · Hookingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min
  • 17:07PHINoah Cates · Hookingdrawn by Owen Power2 min

3rd

  • 4:00PHIKevin Hayes · Hookingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 8:00BUFJeff Skinner · Trippingdrawn by Travis Sanheim2 min
  • 12:01BUFZemgus Girgensons · Holdingdrawn by Scott Laughton2 min
  • 14:49BUFTage Thompson · Trippingdrawn by Ronnie Attard2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalPHI goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Vinnie Hinostroza, 2nd 15:36 — BUF 31% → 53%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Hinostroza · Goal · xG 0.24J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.20V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.19K. Okposo · Goal · xG 0.15A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.13V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.12R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.11T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.10R. Dahlin · Goal · xG 0.09K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.09J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.08A. Bjork · On goal · xG 0.08K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.07K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.07V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.07Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.06A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.06H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.05J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.05C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.04A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.04P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.04V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.04Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.03H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.03H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.02C. Fitzgerald · On goal · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.01C. Fitzgerald · On goal · xG 0.01P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 2.5 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PHIvsBUF
1.73 G
All situations
4 G2.5
0.93 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.80 G
Power play
2 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 68 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PHI34%66%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.68 – 2.52

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PHIvsBUF
21
Shots on goal
29
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/4
Power play
2/4
10
Penalty minutes
10
14
Hits
10
14
Blocked shots
6
9
Giveaways
6
8
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Philadelphia Flyers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
9I. ProvorovD000-120.04032—25:46
6T. SanheimD011+120.07132—23:07
86J. FarabeeL101+130.210105020:43
13K. HayesR000+110.230025020:01
8K. ConnautonD000+100.00130—19:54
11T. KonecnyR101+110.06102—19:31
46B. BrinkR011+120.20100—18:09
54E. ZamulaD000-110.01040—17:41
48M. FrostC000+120.170005417:22
25J. van RiemsdykL000000.07000—17:08
21S. LaughtonC000000.073002016:34
74O. TippettR101020.313005015:03
47R. AttardD000+100.00000—13:47
23O. LindblomL000-110.01000—11:51
3K. YandleD011+120.03000—10:43
49N. CatesL011+100.00302—10:03
44N. ThompsonC000-110.090006209:24
17Z. MacEwenR000-110.0910010009:16
Philadelphia Flyers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35M. Jones(L)29254.8622.53-1.4757:30

Season series

BUF leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).