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Ducks at Lightning
NHL

Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Anaheim Ducks
3
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
Final/OTTV BSSD, BSSC·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Anaheim Ducks 4-3 in overtime, Anthony Cirelli scoring at 1:58. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Ducks led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikita Kucherov's goal at 19:47 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 3% to 51%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.4 to 2.9; shots on goal were ANA 26, TBL 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Anthony Stolarz stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 0.6 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 10 of 13 (.769), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Anthony Cirelli (1 G, 1 A), 2. Adam Henrique (2 G), 3. Alex Killorn (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    A. Cirelli1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    ANA
    A. Henrique2 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    A. Killorn1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
ANAANA063110702326
TBLTBL2110811012431

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    R. Colton(17)
    S. Stamkos (49)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    2:37
  2. TBL
    A. Killorn(22)
    A. Cirelli (25), E. Cernak (8)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    16:42

2nd period

  1. ANA
    A. Henrique(16)
    K. Shattenkirk (25), C. Fowler (31)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    3:42
  2. ANA
    A. Henrique(17)
    R. Getzlaf (29)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +19 pts
    2-2
    10:19
  3. ANA
    T. Terry(34)
    A. Sustr (4), R. Getzlaf (30)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +19 pts
    3-2
    10:41

3rd period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(16)
    C. Perry (19), S. Stamkos (50)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +49 pts
    3-3
    19:47

Overtime

  1. TBL
    A. Cirelli(16)
    A. Killorn (32), M. Sergachev (29)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +49 pts
    3-4
    1:58

Penalties

ANA 6 PIM·TBL 2 PIM

1st

  • 5:34ANARyan Getzlaf · Trippingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min

2nd

  • 8:11ANAserved by T. Terry · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 16:53TBLserved by C. Perry · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 7:41ANATroy Terry · Hookingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalANA goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Nikita Kucherov, 3rd 19:47 — TBL 3% → 51%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Cirelli · Goal · xG 0.24R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.19B. Point · On goal · xG 0.18C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.17B. Point · On goal · xG 0.17S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.16R. Colton · Goal · xG 0.12N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.12A. Killorn · Goal · xG 0.12S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.12A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.11A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.10N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.09O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.09P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.08A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.08C. Perry · Missed · xG 0.08P. Maroon · Missed · xG 0.08A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.08R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.07V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.07A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.07N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.06M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.04C. Foote · On goal · xG 0.04A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.04R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.03N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.03S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02P. Maroon · Missed · xG 0.02O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.02P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.01S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.01
TBL4 G · 3.4 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ANAvsTBL
2.93 G
All situations
4 G3.4
2.73 G
Even strength
4 G2.2
0.20 G
Power play
0 G1.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ANA42%58%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.85 – 3.36

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ANAvsTBL
26
Shots on goal
31
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/1
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
34
Hits
24
17
Blocked shots
7
3
Giveaways
6
6
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Anaheim Ducks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4C. FowlerD011+120.08020—26:15
22K. ShattenkirkD011+110.00510—23:30
19T. TerryR101080.90112—20:33
92A. SustrD011000.00300—19:27
5U. VaakanainenD000-110.02310—19:24
14A. HenriqueC202+260.530205818:43
15R. GetzlafC022+220.152126718:34
46T. ZegrasC000-110.191303817:34
34J. DrysdaleD000-100.21210—17:34
38D. GrantC000000.001001717:17
26G. MayhewC000+100.00200015:16
76J. MahuraD000-110.01330—15:05
16Z. Aston-ReeseL000-110.09510—13:47
21I. LundestromC000-100.05100013:10
23S. SteelC000-100.001004012:35
12S. MilanoL000-100.21100—10:39
39S. CarrickC000-110.26210010:19
51D. SimonC000-120.14100010:12
Anaheim Ducks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41A. Stolarz(O)31274.8713.40-0.6061:58

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).