Jets at Canadiens 4-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Winnipeg Jets

▸4

Montréal Canadiens

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Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Montréal Canadiens 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Jets led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Evgeny Svechnikov's goal at 11:01 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 48% to 82%. Expected goals were close — WPG 2.5, MTL 2.4; shots on goal were WPG 35, MTL 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Canadiens win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 23 of 25 (.920); Samuel Montembeault stopped 31 of 34 (.912), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nikolaj Ehlers (1 A), 2. Samuel Montembeault (31 saves, .912), 3. Morgan Barron (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
N. Ehlers1 A
★★
S. Montembeault31 saves, .912
★★★
M. Barron1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	09	217	29	435
MTL	06	112	17	225

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

J. Armia(6)
C. Dvorak (15), D. Savard (11)
backhandxG 0.23win prob +15 pts
0-1
0:29
M. Barron(1)
N. Ehlers (24), D. Samberg (3)
wristxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
1-1
1:46
P. Stastny(20)
M. Barron (2), D. Samberg (4)
wristxG 0.09win prob +17 pts
2-1
4:00

3rd period

J. Anderson(18)
J. Petry (14), N. Suzuki (36)
deflectedxG 0.07win prob +28 pts
2-2
6:19
E. Svechnikov(7)
K. Connor (43), P. Dubois (29)
wristxG 0.12win prob +34 pts
3-2
11:01
A. Lowry(12)EN
Z. Sanford (11), J. Morrissey (22)
wristxG 0.48win prob +5 pts
4-2
18:31

Penalties

2 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

6:57Paul Byron · Trippingdrawn by Josh Morrissey2 min

2nd

17:35Pierre-Luc Dubois · Holdingdrawn by Nick Suzuki2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: MTL

Biggest swing: Evgeny Svechnikov, 3rd 11:01 — WPG 48% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 2.4 xG · 35 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 2.5 xG · 43 att MTL

2 G · 2.4 xG · 35 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.53 G
All situations: 2 G2.4; 2.03 G
Even strength: 2 G2.0; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

43%57%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.00 – 2.37

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

35
Shots on goal: 25; 55%
Faceoffs: 45%; 0/1
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 2; 28
Hits: 16; 14
Blocked shots: 14; 10
Giveaways: 8; 7
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Winnipeg Jets skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
44J. MorrisseyD	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	3	2	0	—	23:08
2D. DeMeloD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.02	1	0	0	—	22:53
81K. ConnorL	0	1	1	0	2	0.15	0	0	0	—	20:26
4N. PionkD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.03	5	1	0	—	20:16
88N. SchmidtD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.06	1	1	0	—	20:09
22M. AppletonC	0	0	0	0	3	0.24	3	1	0	0	20:06
80P. DuboisC	0	1	1	0	3	0.18	1	2	2	38	18:46
25P. StastnyC	1	0	1	+2	4	0.33	0	0	0	71	18:43
17A. LowryC	1	0	1	0	2	0.70	3	1	0	56	17:44
5B. DillonD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.01	2	1	0	—	17:18
27N. EhlersL	0	1	1	+2	3	0.18	1	1	0	—	17:17
13Z. SanfordL	0	1	1	0	1	0.07	2	3	0	—	17:05
71E. SvechnikovL	1	0	1	0	3	0.23	3	0	0	—	15:58
54D. SambergD	0	2	2	+2	2	0.01	2	1	0	—	15:15
36M. BarronC	1	1	2	+2	4	0.22	1	0	0	0	14:40
21D. ToninatoC	0	0	0	0	0	0.06	0	0	0	100	06:46
23M. EyssimontC	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	0	0	0	05:49
77A. BrooksC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	0	05:41

Winnipeg Jets goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
37C. Hellebuyck(W)	25	23	2	.920	2.39	+0.39	60:00

Season series

WPG leads 2-0

Mar 14@8Final
Apr 114@2this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Winnipeg Jets at Montréal Canadiens

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score