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Jets at Senators
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
▸4
Ottawa Senators
3
FinalTV TVAS, TSN3·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Ottawa Senators 4-3. The Senators scored first; the Jets answered. The Jets led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Paul Stastny's goal at 9:34 of the second period, which took the Jets' chances from 66% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 4.1 to 2.3; shots on goal were WPG 25, OTT 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 75% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 31 of 34 (.912), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Mads Sogaard stopped 21 of 25 (.840), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brady Tkachuk (2 G, 1 A), 2. Nikolaj Ehlers (1 G, 2 A), 3. Paul Stastny (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    WPG
    N. Ehlers1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    P. Stastny1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG1521218425
OTTOTT11208214334

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    J. Norris(32)
    B. Tkachuk (30)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    1:48
  2. WPG
    N. Ehlers(25)
    D. DeMelo (11), P. Stastny (20)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    18:49

2nd period

  1. WPG
    P. Dubois(26)PPG
    K. Connor (42), N. Pionk (28)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    1:47
  2. WPG
    P. Stastny(19)
    N. Ehlers (22), M. Scheifele (41)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    9:34

3rd period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(25)PPG
    C. White (7), T. Stützle (29)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +15 pts
    3-2
    0:50
  2. WPG
    K. Connor(42)PPG
    P. Dubois (28), N. Ehlers (23)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    4-2
    5:37
  3. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(26)PPG
    J. Norris (16), E. Brannstrom (11)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    4-3
    13:58

Penalties

WPG 8 PIM·OTT 8 PIM

1st

  • 5:32WPGEvgeny Svechnikov · Trippingdrawn by Parker Kelly2 min
  • 6:03OTTErik Brannstrom · Interferencedrawn by Dominic Toninato2 min
  • 19:58OTTArtem Zub · Holding the stickdrawn by Pierre-Luc Dubois2 min

2nd

  • 19:01WPGZachary Sanford · Slashingdrawn by Mathieu Joseph2 min

3rd

  • 4:13OTTMathieu Joseph · Trippingdrawn by Evgeny Svechnikov2 min
  • 7:26OTTserved by B. Tkachuk · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 11:43WPGNeal Pionk · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 13:37WPGMason Appleton · Holdingdrawn by Connor Brown2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalWPG goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Paul Stastny, 2nd 9:34 — WPG 66% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. White · On goal · xG 0.39T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.35J. Norris · Goal · xG 0.22T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.19C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.18B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.16B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.15J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.15J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.15B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.13T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.13J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.12B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.12T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.11J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.10T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.10A. Gaudette · On goal · xG 0.10T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.10T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.10A. Gaudette · Missed · xG 0.09T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.09J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.08A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08A. Gaudette · Missed · xG 0.07T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.07C. Tierney · Missed · xG 0.06A. Gaudette · On goal · xG 0.05A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.04E. Brannstrom · Missed · xG 0.04B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02T. Hamonic · Missed · xG 0.02E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.02A. Gaudette · On goal · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.01V. Mete · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.01T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.01A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.01V. Mete · On goal · xG 0.01
OTT3 G · 4.1 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsOTT
2.34 G
All situations
3 G4.1
1.32 G
Even strength
1 G2.0
1.02 G
Power play
2 G2.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG25%75%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.33 – 3.94

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsOTT
25
Shots on goal
34
48%
Faceoffs
52%
2/4
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
19
Hits
24
13
Blocked shots
6
9
Giveaways
11
3
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44J. MorrisseyD000+120.17330—23:52
2D. DeMeloD011+100.00330—22:55
81K. ConnorL112-110.26100—20:26
25P. StastnyC112+230.420003819:45
4N. PionkD011-100.00222—19:31
88N. SchmidtD000-120.11110—19:10
27N. EhlersL123+270.40010—18:57
5B. DillonD000+100.03110—17:49
80P. DuboisC112-130.260004017:20
17A. LowryC000010.050206017:14
22M. AppletonC000010.01102017:05
13Z. SanfordL000010.18402—13:43
71E. SvechnikovL000-100.00202—12:54
54D. SambergD000+120.03100—12:52
36M. BarronC000000.0000010012:50
55M. ScheifeleC011+220.420004512:05
21D. ToninatoC000000.000003309:34
77A. BrooksC000000.00000005:48
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(W)34313.9124.08+1.0860:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).